U.S. Dollar Trading (US) the Dollar lost more ground with US stocks soaring on increasing optimism that Greece will pass the Austerity budget up for vote today/tomorrow. US data was weak with Apr Case Shiller falling -4.0% vs. -3.9% y/y forecast. Also June CB Consumer Confidence dropped further to 58.5 vs. 61.7 previously. In US stocks, DJIA +145 points closing at 12188, S&P +16 points closing at 1296 and NASDAQ +41 points closing at 2241. Looking ahead, May Pending Home Sales forecast at 3.8% vs. -11.6% previously.

The Euro (EUR) in the back drop of protests in Greece optimism is still strong that the austerity budget will pass. Also helping is talk the French/German banks will participate in a voluntary debt rollover to help give Greece further breathing room. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4236 and a high of 1.4398 before closing the day around 1.4345 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June Consumer Sentiment forecast at -10 vs. -9.8.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the weakest currency in the market with USD/JPY able to break resistance on topside and crosses all rebounding aggressively. EUR/JPY led higher above Y116 and the carry trade AUD/JPY reclaimed the key Y85 level. The market is been support buy a potential earthquake  Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.65 and a high of 81.27 before closing the day around 81.05 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was not eager to rally with annual Q1 GDP downgraded to 1.6% vs. 1.8% previously and continued bearish sentiment towards the BOE monetary policy. The large stock gains forced the market higher but it lagged the rest of the market best expressed by the EUR/GBP which pushed towards 0.9000. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5909 and a high of 1.6046 before closing the day at 1.5995 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May Mortgage approvals forecast at 46.1k vs. 45.2k previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged back to life back above 1.0500 and Y85 and threatening to catch the market short. The sharp move higher is not unusual for the much loved Aussie when stock markets rebound higher. Also helping was strong commodities markets. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0434 and a high of 1.0549 before closing the day at 1.0530 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold remained close to the $1500 level consolidating recent losses. Overall trading with a low of USD$1495 and high of USD $1506 before ending the New York session at USD$1504 an ounce. Oil had a good day tracking stocks higher. WTI Oil Closed +2.28 at $92.89 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4074

1.4103

1.4350

1.4459

1.4498

USD/JPY

80.00

80.29

81.05

81.33

81.63

GBP/USD

1.5822

1.5881

1.5995

1.6075

1.6200

AUD/USD

1.0289

1.0390

1.0530

1.0601

1.0651

XAU/USD

1485.00

1490

1504

1526

1549

OIL/USD

90.00



92.50

92.90

95.00

98.00



Euro - 1.4350

Initial support at 1.4103 (Jun 27 low) followed by 1.4074 (Jun 16 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4459 (61.8% retrace of 1.4697-1.4074) followed by 1.4498 (Jun 14 high)



Yen - 81.05

Initial support is located at 80.29 (Jun 27 low) followed by 80.00 (Key Support). Initial resistance is now at 81.33 (Jun 2 high) followed by 81.63 (76.4% retrace of 82.23-79.7).

Pound - 1.5995

Initial support at 1.5881 (61.8% retrace of 1.5345-1.6747) followed by 1.5822 (Jan 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6075 (Jun 23 high) followed by 1.6200 (Psych Resistance).



Australian Dollar - 1.0530

Initial support at 1.0390 (Apr 12 low) followed by the 1.0289 (Apr 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0601 (Jun 24 high) followed by 1.0651 (Jun 22 high).

Gold - 1504

Initial support at 1490 (Jun 27 low) followed by 1485 (76.4% retrace of 1462.45-1558.25). Initial resistance is now at 1526 (June 24 high) followed by 1523 (Jun 23 high).



Oil - 92.90

Initial support at 92.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 90.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 95.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 98.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall