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U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the USD was strong in the Asian session as the surprise credit watch warning on European states hurt sentiment. The rest of the day saw sentiment improve with increasing expectations that the European leaders will do whatever is needed to get solve the debt crisis. In US stocks, DJIA +53 points closing at 12150, S&P +1 points closing at 1258 and NASDAQ -6 points closing at 2649. Looking ahead, Crude Oil Inventories forecast at -0.8mn vs. 3.9mn previously. Also October consumer credit forecast at 7bn vs. 7.4bn.

The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD found support at 1.3360 and grinded higher for the rest of the day as the market continued to be optimistic. Q3 GDP was confirmed at 0.2% Q/Q and German Industrial Orders surged at 5.2% vs. 0.8% forecast. The outlook is positive as the leaders continued to say the right things to the market. EUR/GBP and EUR/AUD both rallied as the Euro outperformed. Looking ahead, October Industrial Output forecast at 0.4% vs. -0.7% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY continued to range trade in a tight Y77.60 to Y77.80 range. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY moved slightly higher and the AUD/JPY found support on its dip after the rate cut yesterday. The outlook for the Yen is still very closely linked to the stock markets and the US recovery.

The Sterling (GBP) underperformed the Euro as the market bought EUR/GBP which had been under pressure recently. The GBP/USD is struggling above 1.5600 but is very quiet as are most of the markets ahead of the EU summit and ECB/BOE meetings on Thursday. Halifax HPI fell -0.9% vs. 0.0% forecast m/m. Looking ahead, October Industrial Output forecast at -0.3% vs. 0% previously m/m.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was sold aggressively after the central bank RBA cut rates to 4.25% vs. 4.5% previously. The market found support under 1.0200 and bounced back in Europe with stock markets rallying. The outlook is mixed with the Chinese story darkening and the Eurozone crisis still unresolved. Looking ahead, Q3 GDP forecast at 1.0% vs. 1.2% previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold was weak in Asia but found support at $1700 for a second time and bounced to $1730. Oil grinded back above $101 in quiet trade.

Pairs to watch

EUR/USD To rally on EU leader hope?

XAU/USD Selling done?

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3212

1.3363

1.3400

1.3548

1.3730

USD/JPY

77.01

77.49

77.70

78.29

78.42

GBP/USD

1.5459

1.5526

1.5600

1.5726

1.5883

AUD/USD

1.0000

1.0151

1.0245

1.0350

1.0447

XAU/USD

1683.00

1701

1728

1755

1767

OIL/USD

99.00

100.00

101.10

102.00

105.00

Euro – 1.3400

Initial support at 1.3363 (Dec 2 low) followed by 1.3212 (Nov 25 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3548 (Dec 2 high) followed by 1.3730 (50% retrace of 1.4247-1.3212)

Yen – 77.70

Initial support is located at 77.49 (Dec 1 low) followed by 77.01 (Nov 24low). Initial resistance is now at 78.29 (Nov 29 high) followed by 78.42 (Nov 2 high).

Pound – 1.5600

Initial support at 1.5526 (Nov 30 low) followed by 1.5459 (Nov 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5726 (Dec 2 high) followed by 1.5883 (61.8% retrace of 1.6167-1.5423).

Australian Dollar – 1.0245

Initial support at 1.0151 (Dec 1 high) followed by the 1.0000 (Round Number). Initial resistance is now at 1.0350 (Nov 14 high) followed by 1.0447 (Nov 3 high).

Gold – 1728

Initial support at 1701 (Nov 30 high) followed by 1728 (61.8% retrace of 1681.73-1802.93). Initial resistance is now at 1755 (Dec 5 high) followed by 1816 (Sep 21 high).

Oil – 101.10

Initial support at 100.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 99.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 102.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 105.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall