U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was sold aggressively in Europe and in the US session with fresh focus on US debt situation after Moody's stated that the AAA could be negatively affected but the extension of the Bush tax cuts in as little as two years. In US stocks, DJIA +18 points closing at 11428, S&P +1 points closing at 1241 and NASDAQ -12 points closing at 2624. Looking ahead, November Retail Sales are forecast at 0.6% vs. 0.4% previously. November PPI is forecast 0.6% vs. 0.4% previously. Also today, FOMC Rate Statement forecast to hold at 0.25%.

The Euro (EUR) the Euro led the pack higher rising steadily all day for a 200 pip gain. The move began in Europe when stocks moved higher and accelerated on the US rating news. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3181 and a high of 1.3435 before closing at 1.3390. Looking ahead, October Industrial Output forecast at 1.3% vs. 0.9% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the Dollar moved lower dragging USD/JPY towards Y83 before buoyant crosses helped to lift the major off lows. AUD/JPY pushed above Y83 and EUR/JPY tested Y112 before easing slightly. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.03 and a high of 84.37 before closing the day around 83.40 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October Industrial Output previously -1.8%.

The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro move higher but could not keep up with the pace of the single currency allowing EUR/GBP to move back to the mid 0.8450 region. UK House prices continue to weaken with Rightmove HPI -3.0%m/m. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5717 and a high of 1.5900 before closing the day at 1.5850 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie began to rally in late Asia when it became clear that China would not be raising interest rates in response to the strong CPI numbers over the weekend. China Stock rallied 3% and kick started a global equity rally. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9838 and a high of 0.9987 before closing the US session at 0.9945.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold rallied but failed to break key resistance at $1400. Overall trading with a low of USD$1379 and high of USD $1400 before ending the New York session at USD$1396 an ounce. Resumed its uptrend moving back above $89 briefly before profit taking pared back gains. WTI Oil Closed +$0.60 at $88.40 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2969

1.3165

1.3375

1.3434

1.3442

USD/JPY

82.34

83.11

83.50

84.41

85.40

GBP/USD

1.5581

1.5712

1.5855

1.5897

1.5965

AUD/USD

0.9776

0.9833

0.9945

0.9985

1.000

XAU/USD

1362.00

1371

1396

1404

1438

OIL/USD

87.00

88.00

88.45

89.50

90.00





Euro - 1.3375

Initial support at 1.3165 (Dec 9 low) followed by 1.2969 (Nov 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3434 (Dec 13 high) followed by 1.3442 (Dec 6 high)



Yen - 83.50

Initial support is located at 83.11 (Dec 13 high) followed by 82.34 (Dec 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 84.41 (Nov 29 high) followed by 85.40 (Sept 24 high).

Pound - 1.5855

Initial support at 1.5712 (Dec 9 Low) followed by 1.5581 (Dec 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5897 (Dec 13 high) followed by 1.5965 (Nov 23 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.9945

Initial support at 0.9833 (Dec 13 low) followed by the 0.9776 (Dec 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9985 (Dec 13 high) followed by 1.0000 (Psychological Resistance).

Gold - 1396

Initial support at 1371 (Dec 3 low) followed by 1362 (Nov 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1404 (Dec 8 high) followed by 1438 (1329.70 plus 1315.45-1424.60).

Oil - 88.45

Initial support at 88.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 87.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 89.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 90.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall