U.S. Dollar Trading (US) was able to gain after some strong economic data helped offset the usual 'risk on' Dollar selling we see when stock markets rally. June Private ADP Jobs Reports surged +157k vs. +68k forecast and bodes well for tonight's all important Nonfarm Payroll report. In US stocks, DJIA +93 points closing at 12719, S&P +14 points closing at 1353 and NASDAQ +38 points closing at 2872. Looking ahead, June Nonfarm Payrolls forecast at 90k vs. 54k previously. June Unemployment Rate forecast unchanged at 9.1%.

The Euro (EUR) saw day lows in the European session before the ECB meeting and Trichet Press conference. The market turned around after the ECB raised rates as expected and Trichet commented they will be accepting Junk rated Portugal bonds as collateral for ECB bonds. The Market ended slightly higher against the USD but large gains were seen against the GBP and JPY. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4220 and a high of 1.4375 before closing the day around 1.4350 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May German Trade Balance forecast at 12bn.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was a major mover reacting to the strong US jobs numbers by breaking above resistance at Y81 and threatening to break out to the topside if NFP numbers are strong from the US tonight. Support is seen from AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY which are well positioned technically to push higher after pulling back and find support last week. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.78 and a high of 81.42 before closing the day around 81.30 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was caught in a tight range under 1.6000 with the market consolidating waiting for further catalysts. The selling has subsided for now though and solid support is forming in the 1.4920-50 region. EUR/GBP is back at 0.9000 after a sharp reversal higher overnight. The BOE held at 0.5% as widely forecast and had little impact on the market.  Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5943 and a high of 1.6020 before closing the day at 1.5670 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June PPI output forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.2% m/m.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged above 1.0700 in Asia after some very strong June Employment figures at 23.4k vs. 7.8k previously. Inside those figures showed a +50k fulltime employment bounce which now puts further rate hikes back on the table if Q2 CPI figures come in strong. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0684 and a high of 1.0782 before closing the day at 1.0770 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold was quiet above $1530 after testing support below. Overall trading with a low of USD$1522 and high of USD $1535 before ending the New York session at USD$1530 an ounce. Oil broke higher back above the next level resistance level at $98. WTI Oil Closed +$2.02 at $98.67 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4103

1.4215

1.4355

1.4467

1.4578

USD/JPY

80.00

80.29

81.30

81.77

81.63

GBP/USD

1.5822

1.5911

1.5970

1.6091

1.6263

AUD/USD

1.0520

1.0655

1.0760

1.0790

1.0889

XAU/USD

1492.00

1510

1530

1549

1558

OIL/USD

95.00



98.00

98.70

100.00

103.00



Euro - 1.4355

Initial support at 1.4215 (76.4% retrace of 1.4103-1.4578) followed by 1.4103 (Jun 27 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4467 (Jul 6 high) followed by 1.4578 (Jul 4 high)



Yen - 81.30

Initial support is located at 80.29 (Jun 27 low) followed by 80.00 (Key Support). Initial resistance is now at 81.77 (May 31 high) followed by 82.23 (May 19 high).

Pound - 1.5970

Initial support at 1.5911 (Jun 28 low) followed by 1.5822 (Jan 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6091 (Jul 6 high) followed by 1.6263 (Jun 22 high).


Australian Dollar - 1.0760

Initial support at 1.0655 (Jul 6 low) followed by the 1.0520 (Jun 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0790 (Jul 1 high) followed by 1.0889 (May 11 high).

Gold - 1530

Initial support at 1510 (Jul 6 low) followed by 1492 (Jul 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1549 (June 23 high) followed by 1558 (Jun 22 high).



Oil - 98.70

Initial support at 98.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 95.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 100.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 103.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall