Daily Outlook - Oil Breaks $100 on Middle East Civil War Fears

By @ibtimes on

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stock markets took another leg lower on growing civil war fears in Libya with  chaos spreading in the middle east. The usual safe haven demand seen for the USD was absent yesterday as investors flooded into the Swiss Franc which hit record lows at 0.9310. In US stocks, DJIA -107 points closing at 12105, S&P -8 points closing at 1307 and NASDAQ -33 points closing at 2722. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 400k vs. 410k previously. Also released, January New Home Sales forecast at 0.31mln vs. 0.33mln previously.

The Euro (EUR) continued to gain strength shrugging off risk aversion to push to week highs. Traders note that interest rate expectations for the Eurozone in recent weeks are firming after lots of hawkish comments from ECB officials. A roadmap to raising rates is expected to be added at the next ECB meeting.  Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3670 and a high of 1.3788 before closing the day around 1.3750 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Revised Q4 German GDP initially at 0.4%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained against most currencies on risk aversion as the safe haven demand pushed USD/JPY lower. The outlook for the major will be largely dependent on the speed of the US recovery and size of QE. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.30 and a high of 82.91 before closing the day around 82.40 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was supported on MPC minutes which showed the rate committee split 6-3 on whether to hold or raise rates at this month's meeting. Cable Closed above 1.6200 and is well supported. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6155 and a high of 1.6277 before closing the day at 1.6215 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February CBI Distributive Trades previously at 37.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) risk aversion sent the Aussie below parity again but strong support was found for the second day and the pair was able to close above the figure. Strong Commodities are helping to offset the stock market falls. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9979 and a high of 1.0062 before closing the day at 1.0055 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) enjoy solid gains on the geopolitical turmoil pushing higher in the $1400's. Overall trading with a low of USD$1395 and high of USD $1417 before ending the New York session at USD$1411 an ounce. WTI Oil tested $100 a barrel in volatile trade as middle east uncertainty reigns. WTI Oil Closed +$2.90 at $98.35 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3525

1.3650

1.3775

1.3785

1.3826

USD/JPY

81.10

81.78

82.25

83.54

83.75

GBP/USD

1.6076

1.6101

1.6250

1.6279

1.6299

AUD/USD

0.9944

0.9960

1.0045

1.0097

1.0158

XAU/USD

1382.00

1389

1415

1417

1424

OIL/USD

96.50

98.00

98.90

100.00

101.00

Euro - 1.3775

Initial support at 1.3650 (Feb 23 low) followed by 1.3525 (Feb 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3785 (Feb 10 high) followed by 1.3826 (Feb 3 High)

Yen - 82.25

Initial support is located at 81.78 (Feb 10 low) followed by 81.10 (Feb 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.54 (Feb 22 high) followed by 83.75 (Feb 17 High).

Pound - 1.6250

Initial support at 1.6101 (Feb 22 low) followed by 1.6076 (Feb 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6279 (Feb 3 high) followed by 1.6299 (Nov 4 High).

Australian Dollar - 1.0045

Initial support at 0.9960 (Feb 16 low) followed by the 0.9944 (Feb 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0097 (Feb 22 high) followed by 1.0158 (Feb 18 high).

Gold - 1415

Initial support at 1389 (Feb 21 low) followed by 1382 (Feb 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 1417 (Jan 4 high) followed by 1424 (Jan 3 high).

Oil - 98.90

Initial support at 98.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 96.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 100.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 101.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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