Daily Outlook - Oil Surges into April

By @ibtimes on

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stocks ended slightly lower in the US session but commodities were very strong with Oil up above $106 a barrel. Weekly Jobless Claims were consistent at 388k vs. 394k ahead of tonight's NFP data. In US stocks, DJIA -30 points closing at 12319, S&P -2 points closing at 1325 and NASDAQ +4 points closing at 2780. Looking ahead, March ISM Manufacturing forecast at 61 vs. 61.4 previously. March Unemployment Rate is forecast at 8.9%. March Non Farm Payrolls forecast at 190k vs. 192k previously.

The Euro (EUR) traded above 1.4200 on continued strength with sentiment towards the single currency still very strong. EUR/GBP hit multi-month highs above 0.8850 before settling slightly lower. Weak February Retail Sales at -0.3% vs. 0.4% previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4115 and a high of 1.4234 before closing the day around 1.4160 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Unemployment Rate forecast at 8.9%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) pushed above Y83 in another solid move for the major with an uptrend possible if more technical levels can be broken today with the US NFP data. Crosses continued higher with EUR/JPY extending week gains above Y118. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.55 and a high of 83.36 before closing the day around 83.25 in the New York session. UPDATE Q1 Tankan at 6 vs. 5 previously.

The Sterling (GBP) was higher pushing above 1.6100 but found heavy resistance and reversed back to support at 1.6040. March HPI fell -0.1% vs. 0.3% previously and as expected. While Cable Holds above 1.6000 tentative bottom may be in place but the market is still very uncertain on the UK going forward. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6014 and a high of 1.6154 before closing the day at 1.6040 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March PMI Manufacturing is forecast at 60.6 vs. 61.5 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was strong once again with fresh highs above 1.0350 with the uptrend still firmly in place. In Economic February Building permits -7.4% vs. 4% forecast. Retail Sales 0.5% vs. 0.4% previously. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0309 and a high of 1.0375 before closing the day at 1.0325 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) moved higher tracking Oil and taking advantage of the weaker USD. Overall trading with a low of USD$1420 and high of USD $1439 before ending the New York session at USD$1431 an ounce. Oil surged to a multi year highs above $106.50. WTI Oil Closed +$2.36 at $106.60 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4021

1.4052

1.4160

1.4249

1.4282

USD/JPY

81.55

82.37

83.60

83.98

85.00

GBP/USD

1.5939

1.5979

1.6030

1.6169

1.6267

AUD/USD

1.0205

1.0269

1.0330

1.0400

1.0425

XAU/USD

1386.00

1402

1432

1438

1450

OIL/USD

103.00

105.00

106.90

107.00

108.00

Euro - 1.4160

Initial support at 1.4052 (Mar 30 low) followed by 1.4021 (Mar 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4249 (Mar 22 high) followed by 1.4282 (Nov 4 high)

Yen - 83.60

Initial support is located at 82.67 (Mar 30 low) followed by 81.55 (Mar 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.98 (Feb 16 high) followed by 85.00 (Major level).

Pound - 1.6030

Initial support at 1.5979 (Mar 30 low) followed by 1.5939 (Mar 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6169 (50% retrace of 1.6401-1.5937) followed by 1.6267 (Mar 24 high).

Australian Dollar - 1.0330

Initial support at 1.0269 (Mar 30 low) followed by the 1.0205 (Mar 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0400 (Big Figure Resistance) followed by 1.0425 (0.9706 plus 0.9537-1.0256).

Gold - 1432

Initial support at 1402 (Mar 18 low) followed by 1386 (Mar 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 1438 (Mar 25 high) followed by 1450 (Round Number).

Oil - 106.90

Initial support at 105.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 103.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 107.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 108.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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