U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) enjoyed gains on the back of risk aversion and profit taking with news of a fresh Japanese earthquake and with Oil slumping sharply on talk of a Libyan ceasefire. Fedspeak from Yellen was still supportive of loose monetary policy. In US stocks, DJIA +1 points closing at 12381, S&P -3 points closing at 1324 and NASDAQ -8 points closing at 2771. Looking ahead, FOMC Member Fisher Speaks. Also ahead, Bank Of Canada Rate Decision forecast 1.0%.

The Euro (EUR) found heavy resistance towards 1.4500 and fell back on EUR/JPY selling and EUR/GBP selling. Consolidation and moves higher are likely but the market was overbought after strong moves higher recently and it is healthy for the uptrend to have pull backs. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4420 and a high of 1.4485 before closing the day around 1.4435 in the New York session. Looking ahead, German Zew Economic Sentiment forecast at 11.7 vs. 14.1 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the Yen gained strength on most pairs as news of fresh aftershocks spooked the market and encourage profit taking. USD/JPY fell back towards Y84 searching for support while EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY fell heavily. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 84.34 and a high of 85.16 before closing the day around 84.55 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) once again stayed inside familiar level unable to break out of the range set out in recent sessions. Cable tested above 1.6400 in Europe and this occurred at the same time EUR/GBP fell below 0.8800 but the gains where unable to be sustained and eased back to opening levels on both pairs Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6312 and a high of 1.6427 before closing the day at 1.6350 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March CPI is forecast at 4.4%. February Trade Balance forecast at -8.1bn vs. -7bn previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the market reversed from fresh highs and broke back under 1.0500 as Oil fell $5 a barrel and AUD/JPY slumped. The market has been heavily long and profit taking could be substantial if negative sentiment continues. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0450 and a high of 1.0551 before closing the day at 1.0526 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) fell nearly $20 as the precious metal was not immune to market wide profit taking. Overall trading with a low of USD$1459 and high of USD $1476 before ending the New York session at USD$1462 an ounce. Oil Slumped to $108 a barrel on talk of Libyan Cease fire. WTI Oil Closed +$2.49 at $112.80 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4243

1.4291

1.4405

1.4500

1.4512

USD/JPY

83.86

84.03

84.20

85.53

86.00

GBP/USD

1.6091

1.6257

1.6305

1.6428

1.6516

AUD/USD

1.0315

1.0412

1.0460

1.0640

1.01023

XAU/USD

1430.00

1456

1458

1477

1480

OIL/USD

105.00



108.00

108.50

110.00

113.50





Euro - 1.4405

Initial support at 1.4291 (Apr 8 low) followed by 1.4243 (Apr 7 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4500 (Big level) followed by 1.4561 (1.2867 plus 1.2588-1.4282)



Yen - 84.20

Initial support is located at 84.03 (Apr 5 low) followed by 83.86 (Apr 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.53 (Apr 6 high) followed by 86.00 (Big Figure Resistance).

Pound - 1.6305

Initial support at 1.6257 (Apr 6 low) followed by 1.6091 (Apr 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6428 (Apr 8 high) followed by 1.6516 (Dec 7 2009 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0460

Initial support at 1.0412 (Apr 7 low) followed by the 1.0315 (Apr 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0640 (0.8771 plus 1.618 of 0.8067-0.9222) followed by 1.1023 (61.8% retrace of 1.4885-0.4776).

Gold - 1458

Initial support at 1456 (Apr 8 low) followed by 1430 (Apr 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1477 (1308.25 plus 0.618 of 1157.03-1431.25) followed by 1480 (Big Figure).



Oil - 108.50

Initial support at 108.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 105.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 110.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 113.50 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall