Daily Outlook - Quiet Monday, Small Bounce in most markets

By @ibtimes on

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) US stocks finished lower and this helped the USD recover from selling in Europe after the EUR/USD led a bounce. May NAHB Housing Market Index Remained at 16 and underscores the ongoing weakness. In US stocks, DJIA -47 points closing at 12548, S&P -8 points closing at 1329 and NASDAQ -46 points closing at 2782. Looking ahead, April Industrial Output forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.8% previously. Also released, April Housing Starts forecast at 0.568mn vs. 0.549mn previously.

The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD received a welcome boost from Chancellor Merkal who stated she was not in favor of any European country restricting debt. This helped douse concerns Greece would have to rework it's mountain of debt in coming months. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4047 and a high of 1.4246 before closing the day around 1.4150 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May German ZEW survey forecast at 87.5 vs. 87.1.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the Major was extremely stable in a 30 pip range but the action remained on the crosses with a rare bounce in EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY on the back of improving sentiment and easing risk aversion. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.66 and a high of 81.08 before closing the day around 80.90 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) underperformed in the bounce, failing to track the EURO higher with EUR/GBP pushing to 0.8750. The market will be closely watching the inflation data today which is still well above the BOE inflation target. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6158 and a high of 1.6256 before closing the day at 1.6190 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April CPI forecast at 0.7% vs. 0.3% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was volatile rallying above 1.0640 at the start of the US session before finding sellers and returning to weakness. The outlook for the AUD/USD will be dependent on stock markets going forward with a further correction seeing 1.0500 come back into view. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0512 and a high of 1.0644 before closing the day at 1.0560 in the New York session. Looking ahead, RBA Minutes.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold was very contained around the $1500 with a brief attempt above before pulling back. Overall trading with a low of USD$1488 and high of USD $1504 before ending the New York session at USD$1492 an ounce. Oil broke with the rest of the market falling on oversupply fears. WTI Oil Closed -$2.28 at $97.37 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4021

1.4062

1.4135

1.4442

1.4500

USD/JPY

78.83

80.00

80.95

81.69

82.28

GBP/USD

1.6091

1.6166

1.6185

1.6380

1.6517

AUD/USD

1.0443

1.0518

1.0550

1.0700

1.0953

XAU/USD

1462.00

1471

1491

1526

1551

OIL/USD

92.50

95.00

96.90

98.00

100.00

Euro - 1.4135

Initial support at 1.4062 (Apr 11 low) followed by 1.4021 (Mar 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4442 (May 9 high) followed by 1.4500 (Key level)

Yen - 80.95

Initial support is located at 80.00 (Psych suppport) followed by 78.83 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 81.69 (May 2 low) followed by 82.28 (Apr 28 High).

Pound - 1.6185

Initial support at 1.6166 (Apr 18 low ) followed by 1.6091 (Apr 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6380 (May 12 high) followed by 1.6517 (May 11 high).

Australian Dollar - 1.0550

Initial support at 1.0518 (38.2% retrace of 0.9706-1.1012) followed by the 1.0443 (Apr 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0700 (big figure resistance) followed by 1.0953 (May 3 high).

Gold - 1491

Initial support at 1471 (May 6 low) followed by 1462 (May 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1526 (May 11 high) followed by 1551 (May 3 high).

Oil - 96.90

Initial support at 95.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 92.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 98.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 100.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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