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Quiet Start, Markets thin, Focus on Europe

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) thin markets meant there was very little movement for the whole day with 30 pip ranges in nearly all the major trading pairs. US Stocks and Commodities opened up today so expect there to be more movement and fresh direction. Focus remains on Europe but also on US economic data tonight. In US stocks, closed for Bank Holiday. Looking ahead, October Case Shiller forecast at -0.4% vs. -0.6% previously m/m.

The Euro (EUR) stayed in a 30 pip range up first then back down to opening levels at the close. Some focus is on news reports that Spain’s economy had slipped into recession could cause caution as traders come back to the market today. Further range trading is still seen however as risk appetite supports the major on dips.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY did very little consolidating around the Y78 level. The BOJ minutes released today showed members were concerned about the Yen rise having negative effects on the economy. Looking ahead, CPI forecast at -0.2% vs. -0.1% y/y.

The Sterling (GBP) was a little more volatile but still in a tight range as the thin markets resulted in sharp moves in both directions. Support is still seen under 1.5600 and traders will be watching stocks for direction. EUR/GBP is trending lower and is providing the major with plenty of support.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) did very little with the risk currency usually tracking stock markets which were closed around the world. Any more gains in stocks will see the AUD/USD retest 1.0200 and a break higher could bring buyers back to the high yielder. Looking ahead, Australian Stock markets open on Wednesday.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold and Oil were closed for Christmas holiday on Monday.

Pairs to watch

AUD/USD to resume buying on dips?

XAU/USD Buyers losing faith?

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2983

1.3025

1.3070

1.3237

1.3386

USD/JPY

76.84

77.49

77.90

78.29

78.98

GBP/USD

1.5465

1.5557

1.5610

1.5889

1.5932

AUD/USD

0.9861

1.0052

1.0150

1.0225

1.0380

XAU/USD

1560.00

1583

1593

1643

1677

OIL/USD

95.00

98.00

99.80

100.00

101.00

Euro – 1.3070

Initial support at 1.3025 (Dec 21 low) followed by 1.2983 (Dec 19 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3237 (Dec 13 high) followed by 1.3386 (Dec 12 high)

Yen – 77.90

Initial support is located at 77.49 (Dec 9 low) followed by 76.84 (Nov 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 78.29 (Nov 29 high) followed by 78.98 (Nov 1 high).

Pound – 1.5610

Initial support at 1.5557 (Dec 16 low) followed by 1.5465 (Dec 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5889 (Nov 18 high) followed by 1.5932 (Nov 15 high).

Australian Dollar – 1.0150

Initial support at 1.0052 (Dec 21 high) followed by the 0.9861 (Dec 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0225 (Dec 9 low) followed by 1.0380 (Dec 8 high).

Gold – 1593

Initial support at 1583 (Dec 19 high) followed by 1560 (Dec 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 1642 (Dec 12 low) followed by 1677 (Dec 13 high).

Oil – 99.80

Initial support at 98.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 95.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 100.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 101.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall