U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) wind was taken out of the risk rallies sail last night after mixed US data. Weekly Jobless Claims were positive falling to 409k vs. 438k previously. Existing homes sales fell -0.8% to 5.05m in April. May Philly Fed Index fell sharply to 3.9 vs. 18.5 previously in a concerning deterioration of business sentiment. In US stocks, DJIA +45 points closing at 12605, S&P +2 points closing at 1343 and NASDAQ +8 points closing at 2823.

The Euro (EUR) Rallied above 1.4300 in Asia before dipping in Europe. The selling proved short-lived and with weak US data traders pushed and closed on a strong footing above 1.4300. The outlook for the Euro is mixed with the Greece debt issue still unresolved. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4205 and a high of 1.4338 before closing the day around 1.4315 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April PPI April 0.5% vs. 04% m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the major broke above Y82 with positive momentum after the weekly jobless claims. The gains reversed later on though after weaker US data releases. Yen Crosses all edged higher even with commodities under pressure. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.45 and a high of 82.24 before closing the day around 81.65 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) did well outperform on strong April retail sales at 1.2% vs. 0.8% forecast. GBP/JPY tested Y133 and other crosses found support. Traders have been eager sellers of the GBP recently on fears of stagflation in the UK economy in H2 2011. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6129 and a high of 1.6245 before closing the day at 1.6230 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) grinded higher with the other majors ignoring the drop in commodities but the prices action was very subdued. AUD/JPY did well above Y87 and closed above the key level looking for more upside. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0567 and a high of 1.0667 before closing the day at 1.0655 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold failed at $1500 and pulled back under $1490 briefly in quiet trade. Overall trading with a low of USD$1486 and high of USD $1500 before ending the New York session at USD$1495 an ounce. Oil slipped back below $100 a barrel on profit taking weakness. WTI Oil Closed -$1.66 at $98.40 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4021

1.4121

1.4330

1.4340

1.4500

USD/JPY

78.83

80.00

81.70

82.28

82.79

GBP/USD

1.6000

1.6091

1.6235

1.6380

1.6517

AUD/USD

1.0443

1.0506

1.0670

1.0717

1.0953

XAU/USD

1462.00

1471

1497

1504

1526

OIL/USD

97.00



98.00

99.30

100.00

103.00





Euro - 1.4330

Initial support at 1.4121 (May 17 low) followed by 1.4021 (Mar 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4340 (May 13 high) followed by 1.4500 (Key level)



Yen - 81.70

Initial support is located at 80.00 (Psych support) followed by 78.83 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 82.28 (April 28 low) followed by 82.79 (Apr 27 High).

Pound - 1.6235

Initial support at 1.6091 (Apr 5 low ) followed by 1.6000 (Big Level Support). Initial resistance is now at 1.6380 (May 12 high) followed by 1.6517 (May 11 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0670

Initial support at 1.0506 (May 17 low) followed by the 1.0443 (Apr 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0717 (May 13 high) followed by 1.0953 (May 3 high).

Gold - 1497

Initial support at 1471 (May 6 low) followed by 1462 (May 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1504 (May 16 high) followed by 1526 (May 11 high).



Oil - 99.30

Initial support at 98.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 97.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 100.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 103.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall