Daily Outlook - Risk Off as Oil continues to make Fresh Highs

By @ibtimes on

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stock markets pulled further back as the middle east turmoil created uncertainty and sent Oil briefly above $107 before pulling back. Also in debate is whether the US QE2 is going to be completed and even if there could be a QE3 as FED members openly debate all the options. In US stocks, DJIA -79 points closing at 12090, S&P -11 points closing at 1310 and NASDAQ -39 points closing at 2745.

The Euro (EUR) broke through 1.4000 in Europe before finding resistance and reversing as Greece was downgrades and stocks turned south in New York. March EU Sentix improved to 17.1 vs. 16.8 previously. The market is still cautious on buying the Euro too aggressively with Portugal's bond yields remaining near highs. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3954 and a high of 1.4038 before closing the day around 1.3970 in the New York session. Looking ahead, January Industrial Orders forecast at 2.4% vs. -3.4% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) tested Y82 but held firm and rebounded softly into the close. The outlook for the USD/JPY is range trading until the Y81-84 limits are broken. EUR/JPY traded around the Y115 level as the market consolidated the rally. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.93 and a high of 82.41 before closing the day around 82.25 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) enjoyed gains with the Euro but reversed aggressively later in the day falling below 1.6200 at one point. GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP not helping as the Pound underperforms and buyers stay cautious ahead of this week's BOE meeting. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6180 and a high of 1.6345 before closing the day at 1.6205 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under heavy selling pressure as sentiment soured in the US session and the Aussie failed to make fresh highs. Many analysts are calling the AUD rally over and very wary of a correction after 2 weeks of range trading. Stock markets as always will be key for the AUD's direction. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0088 and a high of 1.0187 before closing the day at 1.0125 in the New York session.  

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold traded at fresh all time highs above $1445 before reversing aggressively. Overall trading with a low of USD$1427 and high of USD $1445 before ending the New York session at USD$1431 an ounce. Oil Surged but reversed back to opening levels as news from the middle east directs a very volatile market. WTI Oil Closed +$0.92 at $105.35 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3744

1.3833

1.3965

1.4086

1.4282

USD/JPY

81.13

81.73

82.30

83.07

83.98

GBP/USD

1.6072

1.6151

1.6190

1.6344

1.6458

AUD/USD

0.9982

1.0088

1.0120

1.0202

1.0256

XAU/USD

1389.00

1409

1431

1450

1458

OIL/USD

103.50

105.0

105.10

106.50

108.00

Euro - 1.3965

Initial support at 1.3833 (Mar 3 low) followed by 1.3744 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4086 (Nov 8 high) followed by 1.4282 (Nov 4 high)

Yen - 82.30

Initial support is located at 81.73 (Mar 3 low) followed by 81.13 (Feb 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.07 (Mar 4 high) followed by 83.98 (Feb 16 High).

Pound - 1.6190

Initial support at 1.6151 (61.8% retrace of 1.6031-1.6344) followed by 1.6072 (Feb 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6344 (March 2 low) followed by 1.6458 (Jan 19, 2010 high).

Australian Dollar - 1.0120

Initial support at 1.0076 (Mar 4 low) followed by the 1.0002 (Feb 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0202 (Mar 1 high) followed by 1.0256 (Dec 31 high).

Gold - 1431

Initial support at 1409 (Mar 1 low) followed by 1389 (Feb 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1450 (psychological resistance) followed by 1458 (1410.32 plus 1392.65-1440.32).

Oil - 105.10

Initial support at 105.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 103.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 106.50 (Feb Spike High) followed by 108.00 (Big Figure resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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