U.S. Dollar Trading (US) sentiment improved in Asia with stronger than expected Chinese data and a rally in Japanese Stocks helping start a Global rally. US S&P 500 rallied the most in 2 months with US May Retail Sales better than forecast at -0.2% vs. -0.4% expected. May PPI increased 0.2% ahead of tonight's very important CPI Numbers. In US stocks, DJ +123 points closing at 12076, S&P +16 points closing at 1287 and NASDAQ +39 points closing at 2639. Looking ahead, May CPI forecast at 0.1% vs. 04% previously.
The Euro (EUR) negative Greece bailout news continued to hamper gains with a test of 1.4500 rejected and the major pulling back to opening levels late in the US session. EUR/GBP bounced to above 0.8840 before once again sellers regained control to push the cross back to 0.8800. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4377 and a high of 1.4498 before closing the day around 1.4420 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April Industrial Production forecast at -0.2% m/m.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the Yen was under pressure as crosses rallied and USD/JPY moved higher after the Bank of Japan announced a new loan program for banks and the BOJ held rates at 0.1%. The ongoing support for deflation hit Japanese economy is seen as continuing for the foreseeable future. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.09 and a high of 80.65 before closing the day around 80.45 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) was unable to rally past the key resistance area at 1.6460-1.6500 even after stronger than rumored CPI numbers for May at 4.5% y/y. The pullback began on EUR/GBP buying and Cable slipped below 1.6400 to fall even lower in late US trade. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6353 and a high of 1.6444 before closing the day at 1.6370 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May Claimant Count forecast at 7k vs. 12.4k previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) Was strong in the risk on trading environment rallying with stocks above 1.0700 before reversing later on the Euro weakness. AUD/JPY was strong pushing above Y86 on the BOJ lending facility and threatening to resume its recent uptrend. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0567 and a high of 1.0717 before closing the day at 1.0680 in the New York session.
Oil & Gold (XAU) found support and took advantage of the USD weakness to bounce above $1520. Overall trading with a low of USD$1511 and high of USD $1527 before ending the New York session at USD$1525 an ounce. Oil rallied sharply after heavy selling in the last 3 days. WTI Oil Closed +2.34 at $99.64 a barrel.
|Currency||Sup 2||Sup 1||Spot||Res 1||Res 2|
Euro - 1.4415
Initial support at 1.4333 (50% retrace of 1.3970-1.4697) followed by 1.4308 (Jun 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4551 (Jun 10 high) followed by 1.4653 (Jun 9 high)
Yen - 80.45
Initial support is located at 79.57 (May 5 low) followed by 78.83 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 81.01 (Jun 3 high) followed by 81.33 (Jun 2 high).
Pound - 1.6370
Initial support at 1.6173 (76.4% retrace of 1.6058-1.6547) followed by 1.6132 (May 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6473 (Jun 7 high) followed by 1.6496 (Jun 1 high).
Australian Dollar - 1.0670
Initial support at 1.0510 (May 26 low) followed by the 1.0440 (May 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0726 (Jun 8 high) followed by 1.0877 (76.4% retrace of 1.1012-1.0441).
Gold - 1525
Initial support at 1513 (May 24 low) followed by 1504 (May 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 1545 (June 6 high) followed by 1577 (All time high).
Oil - 99.15
Initial support at 98.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 96.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 100.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 103.00 (Intraday Resistance).
Written by Anthony Darvall