U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) The weak USD theme continued with investors searching for riskier trades with higher returns. The High Yielding Aussie hit all time highs as stock markets continue to push higher. March ADP Employment was solid at 201k vs. 203k previously. In US stocks, DJIA +71 points closing at 12350, S&P +8 points closing at 1328 and NASDAQ +19 points closing at 2776. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 380k vs. 283k previously.

The Euro (EUR) dipped in Europe but reversed once again on strong EUR/JPY buying which tracked stock markets higher in the US Session. Resistance was found at 1.4150 for the second day and the market may wait until Friday US jobs reports for fresh direction. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4051 and a high of 1.4149 before closing the day around 1.4135 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February German Retail Sales are forecast at 0.4% vs. 1.4% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remained strong supported by the strong ADP Employment report at 201k vs. 208k previously. Crosses enjoyed solid gains with AUD/JPY year highs above Y85 and EUR/JPY now above Y117 in very one sided moves. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.40 and a high of 83.23 before closing the day around 83.10 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was able to finally rally on the back of strong data and positive markets. CBI Distributive trades jumped to 15 vs. 6 previously in March. EUR/GBP slipped to 0.8750 but losses was contained and most of the moves were seen on GBP/JPY. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5977 and a high of 1.6086 before closing the day at 1.6080 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Nationwide HPI forecast at -0.1% vs. 0.3% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remained strong on the back of investor demand for AUD/JPY with the major closing above the key 1.0300 level ahead of Economic data today. The Market is starting to look higher now as traders become more comfortable with levels above parity. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0268 and a high of 1.0339 before closing the day at 1.0330 in the New York session. UPDATE FEBRUARY Building permits -7.4 % vs. 4% forecast. Retail Sales 0.5% vs. 0.4% previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) broke higher on USD weakness in Europe but sharply reversed back to support at $1412 in classic pump and dump trader moves in New York. Overall trading with a low of USD$1411 and high of USD $1430 before ending the New York session at USD$1423 an ounce. Eased slightly in quiet trade. WTI Oil Closed -$0.44 at $104.10 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3942

1.3981

1.4135

1.4215

1.4249

USD/JPY

80.00

81.33

82.95

83.30

83.54

GBP/USD

1.5748

1.5822

1.6105

1.6142

1.6267

AUD/USD

1.0038

1.0187

1.0335

1.0400

1.0425

XAU/USD

1386.00

1402

1424

1438

1450

OIL/USD

100.00



103.50

104.70

105.00

107.00





Euro - 1.4095

Initial support at 1.3981 (Mar 18 low) followed by 1.3942 (61.8% retrace of 1.3752-1.4249). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4215 (Mar 23 high) followed by 1.4249 (Mar 22 high)



Yen - 82.65

Initial support is located at 81.33 (Mar 28 low) followed by 80.00 (Round Number). Initial resistance is now at 83.30 (Mar 11 high) followed by 83.54 (Feb 22 High).

Pound - 1.6105

Initial support at 1.5822 (Jan 31 low) followed by 1.5748 (61.8% retrace of 1.5345-1.6401). Initial resistance is now at 1.6142 (Mar 25 high) followed by 1.6267 (Mar 24 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0335

Initial support at 1.0187 (Mar 25 low) followed by the 1.0113 (Mar 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0400 (Big Figure Resistance) followed by 1.0425 (0.9706 plus 0.9537-1.0256).

Gold - 1417

Initial support at 1402 (Mar 18 low) followed by 1386 (Mar 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 1438 (Mar 25 high) followed by 1450 (Round Number).



Oil - 104.40

Initial support at 103.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 100.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 105.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 107.00 (Year High).





Written by Anthony Darvall