U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market was very buoyant in the European session and the Start of the US session but faded towards the end of the day and this led to USD gains and profit taking on commodities. April Manufacturing fell to 60.4 vs. 61.2 but is still well into the expansionary zone. In US stocks, DJIA -3 points closing at 12807, S&P -2 points closing at 1361 and NASDAQ -9 points closing at 2864. Looking ahead, March Durable Goods and Factory Orders.

The Euro (EUR) the market broke tested 1.4900 but reversed sharply from the key level, leading the rest of the market lower in an interesting technical signal. Many are looking for the ECB to provide the bulls fuel for a 1.5000 test as the differing monetary policy is exposed. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4760 and a high of 1.4904 before closing the day around 1.4825 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March PPI forecast at 0.6% vs. 0.8% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) ended on strong note with crosses and majors falling with US stocks. USD/JPY once again tested Y81 but again the level held. Below this the key Y80 level and talk of BOJ intervention will resume. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.69 and a high of 81.03 before closing the day around 81.25 in the New York session.  

The Sterling (GBP) was weaker than most majors with the market selling the Pound first against the resurgent Dollar. EUR/GBP took advantage moving above 0.8900 and the looking strong as the uptrend continues. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6635 and a high of 1.6725 before closing the day at 1.6650 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April CBI distributive Trades forecast at 13 vs. 15 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tested 1.1000 twice but failed both times and ended at day lows in moves similar to the Euro. The market is cautious of being long ahead of the RBA decision today which is expected to be hawkish given the CPI numbers last week. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0930 and a high of 1.1013 before closing the day at 1.0945 in the New York session. Looking ahead, RBA forecast to hold at 4.75%.

Oil & Gold (XAU) hit fresh all time highs but then was pressured lower on the silver crash which was down over 10% at one point. Overall trading with a low of USD$1540 and high of USD $1575 before ending the New York session at USD$1546 an ounce. A $3 range underpins how dangerous the commodity has been lately with selling post bin laden death news reversed for fresh year highs in the US. The market then settled closing just above the $113 level. WTI Oil Closed -$0.41 at $113.52 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4633

1.4763

1.4795

1.4905

1.5000

USD/JPY

80.00

80.69

81.05

82.28

82.79

GBP/USD

1.6432

1.6500

1.6610

1.6747

1.6846

AUD/USD

1.0852

1.0882

1.0915

1.1000

1.1191

XAU/USD

1501.00

1524

1541

1577

1600

OIL/USD

110.00



112.00

113.05

114.00

115.00





Euro - 1.4795

Initial support at 1.4763 (May 2 Low) followed by 1.4633 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4905 (Dec 7 2009 high) followed by 1.5000 (Big Figure Resistance)



Yen - 81.05

Initial support is located at 80.69 (Mar 21 low) followed by 80.00 (Big Figure Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.28 (Apr 28 low) followed by 82.79 (Apr 27 High).

Pound - 1.6610

Initial support at 1.6500 (psychological support) followed by 1.6432 (Apr 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6747 (Apr 28 high) followed by 1.6846 (Nov 18, 2009).



Australian Dollar - 1.0915

Initial support at 1.0882 (Apr 29 low) followed by the 1.0852 (Apr 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.1000 (big figure resistance) followed by 1.1191 (0.9706 plus 0.8771-1.0256).

Gold - 1541

Initial support at 1524 (Apr 28 low) followed by 1501 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1577 (May 2 high) followed by 1600 (Big level resistance).



Oil - 113.05

Initial support at 112.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 110.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 114.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 115.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall