U.S. Dollar Trading (US) a shocking ADP jobs report combined with a slump in the US manufacturing ISM to send stocks down over 2%. May ADP private payrolls at 38k vs. 177k previously. May ISM Manufacturing dropped to 53.3 vs. 60.4 previously. In US stocks, DJIA -279 points closing at 12290, S&P -30 points closing at 1314 and NASDAQ -66 points closing at 2769. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 415k vs. 424k previously. Also Weekly Crude inventories forecast at -1.7m vs. 0.6m previously.

The Euro (EUR) traded at fresh weekly highs in Europe before slumping on risk aversion due to the sharp fall in US stocks. May PMI Manufacturing fell further on revisions to 54.4 vs. 54.6 initially. EUR/CHF slump towards fresh all-time lows near 1.2000 on continued demand for the safe haven Swiss franc. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4306 and a high of 1.4460 before closing the day around 1.4350 in the New York session. Looking ahead, ECB President Trichet speaks.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) Yen did well from its safe haven status with the market still buying when stock markets fall. USD/JPY broke below Y81 and the key Y80 level is back on the cards if heavy selling comes through on the Yen crosses. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.65 and a high of 81.51 before closing the day around 80.90 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) tracked the risk on and off trading falling sharply on a drop in UK May PMI Factory which dropped to 52.1 vs. 54.4 previously. EUR/GBP popped above 0.8800 before reversing. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6422 and a high of 1.6548 before closing the day at 1.6455 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May Construction PMI forecast at 53.6 vs. 53.3.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) reacted to the negativity crunching lower back to 1.6000 before finding support. The Aussie is very closely linked to global investor risk appetite and a further correction could lead to a major unwind. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0592 and a high of 1.0755 before closing the day at 1.0620 in the New York session. Update April Retail Sales at 1.1% vs. 0.4% forecast.

Oil & Gold (XAU) soared for a test of $1450 and although selling pressure came later did well to hold daily gains against the USD. Overall trading with a low of USD$1529 and high of USD $1550 before ending the New York session at USD$1540 an ounce. Oil tracked US stocks to test $100 a barrel. WTI Oil Closed -2.40 at $100.29 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4125

1.4257

1.4355

1.4423

1.4455

USD/JPY

80.34

80.64

81.20

82.00

82.23

GBP/USD

1.6132

1.6268

1.6340

1.6584

1.6661

AUD/USD

1.0510

1.0609

1.0650

1.0794

1.0877

XAU/USD

1504.00

1513

1540

1550

1577

OIL/USD

95.00



98.00

99.90

103.00

105.00





Euro - 1.4355

Initial support at 1.4257 (May 30 low) followed by 1.4125 (May 27 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4423 (May 11 High) followed by 1.4455 (50% retrace of 1.4940-1.3970)



Yen - 81.20

Initial support is located at 80.64 (May 16 low) followed by 80.34 (May 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (Big Figure resistance) followed by 82.23 (May 19 high).

Pound - 1.6340

Initial support at 1.6268 (May 26 low) followed by 1.6132 (May 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6584 (76.4% retrace of 1.6747-1.6058) followed by 1.6661 (May 3 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0650

Initial support at 1.0609 (May 27 low) followed by the 1.0510 (May 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0794 (61.8% retrace of 1.1012-1.0441) followed by 1.0877 (76.4% retrace of 1.1012-1.0441).

Gold - 1540

Initial support at 1513 (May 24 low) followed by 1504 (May 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 1550 (June 1 high) followed by 1577 (All time high).



Oil - 99.90

Initial support at 98.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 95.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 103.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 105.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall