U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) weak US data sent stock markets south for a second day with USD finding support as safe haven soared. April ISM Services at 52.8 vs. 57.3 previously was a major shock to the markets. In US stocks, DJIA -83 points closing at 12723, S&P -9 points closing at 1347 and NASDAQ -13 points closing at 2828. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 410k vs. 429k previously.

The Euro (EUR) more volatility intraday with EUR/USD year highs during Europe reversed on the weak US data. March Retail Sales fell -1.0% vs. +0.3% previously. EUR/JPY also came under pressure falling to the lower end of the recent Y119-121 range. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4775 and a high of 1.4945 before closing the day around 1.4830 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May ECB Rate Announcement forecast to hold at 1.25%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) did well with the risk off trading in the US session with the major falling to fresh month lows at Y80.40. The support is being ground away as crosses also help the Yen and further stock market losses threaten a USD/JPY test of Y80. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.42 and a high of 81.20 before closing the day around 80.60 in the New York session.  

The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro with a rally in the European session reversed with US stock market losses. April Construction PMI fell to 53.3 vs. 56.4 previously. EUR/GBP pushed a little higher above 0.9020 but the market is careful not to get caught long as selling from this level has been noted in the past. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6454 and a high of 1.6575 before closing the day at 1.6495 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE Rate announcement forecast to hold at 0.50%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie reacted to the heavy selling in commodities and weak risk appetite to fall through 1.0800 to pressure the uptrend. Adding to the pressure on Thursday morning Asian time was the weak March Retail Sales at -1.0% inspiring a test of 1.0700 ahead of the ECB tonight. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0725 and a high of 1.0877 before closing the day at 1.0745 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) crashed though support to come close to the $1500 level before recovering slightly into the close. Overall trading with a low of USD$1506 and high of USD $1543 before ending the New York session at USD$1517 an ounce. Failed at the $111 level and then reversed $2 given the change of sentiment seen across the markets. WTI Oil Closed -$1.81 at $109.24 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4600

1.4633

1.4865

1.4905

1.5000

USD/JPY

79.79

80.00

80.50

81.28

82.28

GBP/USD

1.6387

1.6432

1.6520

1.6661

1.6747

AUD/USD

1.0519

1.0677

1.0725

1.0925

1.1017

XAU/USD

1493.00

1503

1518

1551

1577

OIL/USD

107.00



108.00

108.90

110.00

112.00





Euro - 1.4865

Initial support at 1.4633 (April 27 Low) followed by 1.4600 (Big Figure Support). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4905 (Dec 7 2009 high) followed by 1.5000 (Big Figure Resistance)



Yen - 80.50

Initial support is located at 80.69 (Mar 21 low) followed by 80.00 (Big Figure Support). Initial resistance is now at 81.69 (May 2 high) followed by 82.28 (Apr 28 High).

Pound - 1.6520

Initial support at 1.6432 (April 26 low) followed by 1.6387 (Apr 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6661 (May 3 high) followed by 1.6747 (Apr 28 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0725

Initial support at 1.0677 (Apr 21 low) followed by the 1.0519 (Apr 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.1000 (big figure resistance) followed by 1.1191 (0.9706 plus 0.8771-1.0256).

Gold - 1518

Initial support at 1503 (Apr 27 low) followed by 1493 (Apr 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1551 (May 3 high) followed by 1577 (May 2 high).



Oil - 108.90

Initial support at 108.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 107.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 110.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 112.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall