U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) in a break from the normal relationship stronger Stocks in the US failed to hurt the USD which managed small gains against most pairs. The rally in stocks was attributed to the improvement in Novembers Trade balance to 38.7b vs. 44bn previously and a jump in Consumer sentiment to 74.2 vs. 71.6 previously. In US stocks, DJIA +40 points closing at 11410, S&P +7 points closing at 1240 and NASDAQ +20 points closing at 2637.

The Euro (EUR) The Euro struggled to rally as the ECB fought internally over the size of the bailout fund and on whether the Eurozone can issue joint Eurobonds. Concerns over Peripheral bond markets still exist with Portugal and Spain the major focus. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3179 and a high of 1.3282 before closing at 1.3226.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD strength saw a grind higher on the major towards Y84 before consolidating in a quiet market. The market is also watching the BOJ closely to see if they will expand their own QE program. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.46 and a high of 84.01 before closing the day around 83.89 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) some softer than expected November PPI at 3.3 vs. 3.5% y/y had very little impact in the market with stronger risk appetite competing with USD strength on the major. EUR/GBP managed to grind lower and GBP/JPY is also doing well in recent sessions. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5750 and a high of 1.5861 before closing the day at 1.5810 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie tested 0.9900 before easing back on USD strength in the US session. Attention will be on China stock markets today after very strong CPI at 5.1% y/y released on Saturday. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9829 and a high of 0.9896 before closing the US session at 0.9846. Looking ahead, RBA Governor Stevens Speaks.

Oil & Gold (XAU) gold fell sharply in the US session over $20 an ounce before stabilizing at familiar levels. Overall trading with a low of USD$1372 and high of USD $1393 before ending the New York session at USD$1385 an ounce. Fell from $89 to $87 in sympathy with other commodities before consolidating. WTI Oil Closed -$0.58 at $87.79 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2969

1.3165

1.3205

1.3323

1.3401

USD/JPY

82.32

83.46

83.90

84.41

85.40

GBP/USD

1.5581

1.5712

1.5795

1.5863

1.5965

AUD/USD

0.9625

0.9739

0.9855

0.9939

1.000

XAU/USD

1362.00

1371

1383

1404

1438

OIL/USD

85.00

87.00

87.70

88.00

90.00





Euro - 1.3205

Initial support at 1.3165 (Dec 9 low) followed by 1.2969 (Nov 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3323 (Dec 9 high) followed by 1.3401 (Dec 7 high)



Yen - 83.90

Initial support is located at 83.46 (Dec 8 high) followed by 82.32 (50% retrace of 80.22-84.41). Initial resistance is now at 84.41 (Nov 29 high) followed by 85.40 (Sept 24 high).

Pound - 1.5795

Initial support at 1.5712 (Dec 9 Low) followed by 1.5581 (Dec 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5841 (Dec 9 high) followed by 1.5965 (Nov 23 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.9855

Initial support at 0.9739 (Dec 3 low) followed by the 0.9625 (Dec 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9939 (Dec 3 high) followed by 1.0000 (Psychological Resistance).

Gold - 1383

Initial support at 1371 (Dec 3 low) followed by 1362 (Nov 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1404 (Dec 8 high) followed by 1438 (1329.70 plus 1315.45-1424.60).

Oil - 87.70

Initial support at 87.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 85.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 88.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 90.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall