Daily Outlook - US Data mixed, Dollar Down

By @ibtimes on

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) fresh year highs in US Equities sent the dollar down again across the board. US economic data was very mixed with Weekly Jobless Claims jumping to 410k (vs. 383k previously) being offset by the large spike in February Philly Fed Index up 20 points to 35.9. In US stocks, DJIA +29 points closing at 12318, S&P +4 points closing at 1340 and NASDAQ +6 points closing at 2831. Looking ahead, Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks Before Congress. Also US Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks.

The Euro (EUR) the Euro took advantage of the USD weakness to push back to 1.3600 and hold at the level into the close. EU Consumer Confidence increased to -9.9 vs. -11 previously in February. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3535 and a high of 1.3629 before closing the day around 1.3620 in the New York session. Looking ahead, January German PPI is forecast at 0.6% vs. 0.7% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the major struggled to maintain recent strength as the broad USD weakness weighed on the pair. Crosses though mostly headed higher with AUD/JPY pushing fresh multi-month highs above Y84. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.33 and a high of 83.77 before closing the day around 83.35 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) BOE member Sentence was quoted as supporting interest rate hikes sooner and Cable was also supported by an increase in the February CBI UK Industrial Trends survey to 23 vs. 17 previously both combined to push the Cable higher. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6073 and a high of 1.6190 before closing the day at 1.6090 in the New York session. Looking ahead, January Retail Sales forecast 0.5% vs. -0.8% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushed another cent higher with sellers happy to wait for higher level the market flooded back into the high yielder. All time highs are close at 1.0257 and could be the topside target for buyers in the short term. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0021 and a high of 1.0132 before closing the day at 1.0120 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) continued with its grind higher above $1380 and close on a firm footing. Overall trading with a low of USD$1373 and high of USD $1386 before ending the New York session at USD$1384 an ounce. Picked up aggressively on widespread middle eastern political protests. WTI Oil Closed +$1.47 at $86.46 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3396

1.3428

1.3610

1.3621

1.3736

USD/JPY

82.87

83.10

83.40

84.21

84.69

GBP/USD

1.5964

1.5982

1.6170

1.6186

1.6279

AUD/USD

0.9897

0.9944

1.0115

1.0137

1.0152

XAU/USD

1348.00

1359

1383

1384

1393

OIL/USD

84.50

85.00

86.35

86.50

88.00

Euro - 1.3610

Initial support at 1.3428 (Feb 14 low) followed by 1.3396 (Jan 20 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3621 (Feb 11 high) followed by 1.3736 (Feb 10 High)

Yen - 83.40

Initial support is located at 83.10 (Feb 14 low) followed by 82.87 (38.2% retrace of 80.22-84.51). Initial resistance is now at 84.21 (Dec 17 high) followed by 84.69 (50% retrace of 89.16-80.22).

Pound - 1.6170

Initial support at 1.5982 (Feb 14 low) followed by 1.5964 (Feb 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6186 (Feb 7 high) followed by 1.6279 (Feb 3 High).

Australian Dollar - 1.0115

Initial support at 0.9944 (Feb 15 low) followed by the 0.9897 (76.4% retrace of 0.9804-1.02). Initial resistance is now at 1.0137 (Feb 10 high) followed by 1.0152 (Feb 9 high).

Gold - 1383

Initial support at 1359 (Feb 8 low) followed by 1348 (Feb 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1384 (61.8% retrace of 1431.25-1308.25) followed by 1393 (Jan 13 high).

Oil - 86.35

Initial support at 85.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 84.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 86.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 88.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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