U.S. Dollar Trading (US) the market is now turning its attention to the developing US debt ceiling crisis with time running out on a deal between the President and Republicans. The USD found some support on profit taking in the Euro with the market cautious that a new US debt issue will cause more volatility. In US stocks, DJIA -43 points closing at 12681, S&P +1 points closing at 1345 and NASDAQ +24 points closing at 2858. Looking ahead, traders closely watching the Debt ceiling debate.

The Euro (EUR) broke below 1.4400 but found support and finished close to the figure even as rating agencies looked over the Greece debt deal to decide whether it was a default or not. German IFO fell back to 112.9 vs. 114.5 previously on global growth concerns. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4322 and a high of 1.4437 before closing the day around 1.4360 in the New York session.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY remained under pressure with the Yen and CHF the preferred safe havens in light of the US debt worries. Early Monday the USD/JPY traded new lows on news over the weekend that no debt deal had been agreed. These levels are bringing daily comments from BOJ and MOF officials concerns about the strength of the Yen. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 78.25 and a high of 78.72 before closing the day around 78.40 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was very quiet pivoting the 1.6300 level consolidating the rally on Thursday. EUR/GBP fell back to test 0.8800 but is grinding higher on the post Greece deal enthusiasm for the single currency. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6263 and a high of 1.6327 before closing the day at 1.6300 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell asleep on Friday testing higher in Europe but falling back to opening levels as US stocks fell into the close on debt ceiling concerns. Crosses are more interesting with AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY providing plenty of movement. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0815 and a high of 1.0874 before closing the day at 1.0850 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Q2 PPI forecast at 0.7% vs. 1.2% previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold surged into the weekend on US debt concerns. Overall trading with a low of USD$1583 and high of USD $1608 before ending the New York session at USD$1601 an ounce. Oil tested $100 again but the key level held and is a natural big figure resistance. WTI Oil Closed +$0.70 at $99.70 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4069

1.4134

1.4395

1.4467

1.4554

USD/JPY

76.25

78.00

78.45

79.70

80.83

GBP/USD

1.6069

1.6121

1.6310

1.6366

1.6442

AUD/USD

1.0598

1.0694

1.0825

1.0889

1.0953

XAU/USD

1564.00

1572

1610

1613

1628

OIL/USD

98.00



99.00

99.10

100.00

100.50



Euro - 1.4395

Initial support at 1.4134 (Jul 20 low) followed by 1.4069 (Jul 19 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4467 (Jul 6 high) followed by 1.4554 (Jul 5 high)



Yen - 78.45

Initial support is located at 78.00 (Big Figure support) followed by 76.25 (Mar 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 79.70 (Jun 8 high) followed by 80.83 (Jul 11 high).

Pound - 1.6310

Initial support at 1.6121 (Jul 21 low) followed by 1.6069 (Jul 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6366 (76.4% retrace of 1.6547-1.5781) followed by 1.6442 (Jun 14 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0825

Initial support at 1.0694 (Jul 21 low) followed by the 1.0598 (Jun 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0889 (May 11 high) followed by 1.0953 (May 3 high).

Gold - 1610

Initial support at 1572 (Jul 14 low) followed by 1564 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1613 (Channel upper drawn from Jul 1 low on 60 min chart) followed by 1628 (1462.45 plus 0.618 of 1577.57-1308.25).



Oil - 99.10

Initial support at 99.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 98.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 100.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 100.50 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall