U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market bought the USD on mild risk aversion for the first half of the day before reversing late in the day after the FOMC minutes. China raised Interest rates by 0.25% and Portugal was downgraded by one notch by Moody's to Baa1. The March FOMC Minutes showed some disagreements between members but the majority still held that QE2 should be finished. In US stocks, DJIA -6 points closing at 12293, S&P -1 points closing at 1332 and NASDAQ +2 points closing at 2791.

The Euro (EUR) fell to 1.4150 in Europe but reversed aggressively after the strong US stocks to close above 1.4200. The Dovish FOMC Minutes should continue to support the Euro ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow where a raise is now consensus. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4150 and a high of 1.4247 before closing the day around 1.4225 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February Industrial Orders forecast at 0.6% vs. 1% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) broke above Y85 in a strong move higher lifting all the crosses with the market beginning a new trend. The close above Y85 is going to help cement the move higher and if crosses continue to rally then the major may test Y87 in coming weeks. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 84.15 and a high of 85.26 before closing the day around 85.10 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) finally played catch-up with the rest of the market soaring across the board. GBP/JPY surged over 300 pips above Y139 after hitting lows below Y125 in recent weeks. The market reversed on the EUR/GBP and GBP/USD pushed to 1.6300. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6089 and a high of 1.6308 before closing the day at 1.6300 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March UK House Prices forecast at 0.2% vs. -0.9% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tested support below 1.0300 briefly in Europe but buying returned with the upswing in US stocks to push the Aussie back to familiar levels. The RBA held at 4.75% as widely expected and released a neutral statement. AUD/JPY enjoyed the push up to Y88 on the back of Yen selling. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0287 and a high of 1.0368 before closing the day at 1.0335 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold surged on the back of the FOMC minutes reiterating the QE2 program will be continuing. Overall trading with a low of USD$1429 and high of USD $1457 before ending the New York session at USD$1453 an ounce. Oil dropped slightly but was steady above $108 a barrel. WTI Oil Closed -$0.13 at $108.35 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4021

1.4062

1.4260

1.4282

1.4373

USD/JPY

82.57

83.86

85.40

85.62

86.00

GBP/USD

1.5972

1.6091

1.6335

1.6401

1.6500

AUD/USD

1.0205

1.0269

1.0365

1.0400

1.0425

XAU/USD

1410.00

1439

1453

1460

1480

OIL/USD

105.00



108.00

108.10

110.00

111.00





Euro - 1.4260

Initial support at 1.4062 (Apr 1 low) followed by 1.4021 (Mar 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4282 (Nov 4 high) followed by 1.4373 (76.4% retrace of 1.5144-1.1877)



Yen - 85.40

Initial support is located at 83.86 (Apr 4 low) followed by 82.57 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.62 (50% retrace of 94.99-76.25) followed by 86.00 (Big Figure Resistance).

Pound - 1.6335

Initial support at 1.6091 (Apr 5 low) followed by 1.5972 (Apr 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6401 (March 22 high) followed by 1.6500 (Big Figure Resistance).



Australian Dollar - 1.0365

Initial support at 1.0269 (Mar 30 low) followed by the 1.0205 (Mar 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0400 (Big Figure Resistance) followed by 1.0425 (0.9706 plus 0.9537-1.0256).

Gold - 1453

Initial support at 1439 (Previous Resistance) followed by 1410 (Mar 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1460 (Big Figure) followed by 1480 (Big Figure).



Oil - 108.10

Initial support at 108.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 108.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 110.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 111.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall