U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stock markets rebounded into weekend as Oil fell and risk aversion eased. The main story helping Oil to fall back below $100 a barrel was talk that Saudi Arabia would be able to increase output to compensate the Libyan crisis. Q4 GDP was revised lower to 2.8% vs. 3.2% initially printed. In US stocks, DJIA +61 points closing at 12130, S&P +13 points closing at 1319 and NASDAQ +43 points closing at 2781. Looking ahead, February Chicago PMI forecast at 67.3 vs. 68.8 previously.

The Euro (EUR) fell back on Friday in the US session as the market took profit from the week's rally. German CPI was 0.5% as expected but traders are already focusing on Thursday's ECB announcement. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3721 and a high of 1.3837 before closing the day around 1.3744 in the New York session. Looking ahead, January Inflation forecast at -0.6% vs. 0.6% previously m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the market fell back on the major to support at Y81.60 after failing to reclaim the Y82 level during the Asian sessions. Crosses were more volatile with BGP/JPY leading the market lower. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.63 and a high of 82.05 before closing the day around 81.67 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) came under pressure in the European Session after the Q4 GDP was revised lower to -0.6% vs. -0.5%. The statistics offices noted bad weather for the recessionary figure. EUR/GBP is holding above 0.8500 after recent Pound underperformance. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6029 and a high of 1.6161 before closing the day at 1.6102 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie traded at week highs completing a 5 day rally. The market opened Asia on Monday morning under pressure though on reports the China had lowered its growth targets. Tuesday's RBA decision is widely expected to be a hold at 4.75%. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0081 and a high of 1.0176 before closing the day at 1.0170 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) resumed its grind higher towards Thursday's high of $1418. Overall trading with a low of USD$1400 and high of USD $1415 before ending the New York session at USD$1412 an ounce. Fell back on assurances from OPEC and the IEA that they could compensate Libyan output shortages. WTI Oil Closed -$0.60 at $97.70 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3525

1.3649

1.3750

1.3826

1.3862

USD/JPY

80.93

81.13

81.70

83.54

83.75

GBP/USD

1.5987

1.6037

1.6090

1.6279

1.6299

AUD/USD

0.9944

0.9982

1.0150

1.0189

1.0228

XAU/USD

1382.00

1389

1413

1420

1424

OIL/USD

95.00

96.50

99.70

100.00

103.50





Euro - 1.3750

Initial support at 1.3649 (Feb 23 low) followed by 1.3525 (Feb 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3826 (Feb 3 high) followed by 1.3862 (Feb 2 High)



Yen - 81.70

Initial support is located at 81.13 (Feb 4 low) followed by 80.93 (Jan 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.54 (Feb 22 high) followed by 83.75 (Feb 17 High).

Pound - 1.6090

Initial support at 1.6037 (76.4% retrace of 1.5964-1.6274) followed by 1.5987 (Feb 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6279 (Feb 3 high) followed by 1.6299 (Nov 4 High).



Australian Dollar - 1.0150

Initial support at 0.9982 (Feb 23 low) followed by the 0.9944 (Feb 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0189 (Feb 8 high) followed by 1.0228 (Jan 3 high).

Gold - 1413

Initial support at 1389 (Feb 21 low) followed by 1382 (Feb 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 1420 (1407.97 plus 0.618 of 1396.30-1416.68) followed by 1424 (Jan 3 high).



Oil - 99.70

Initial support at 96.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 95.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 100.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 103.50 (Feb Spike High).





Written by Anthony Darvall