U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) dollar selling resumed as the market shrugged off the US rating warning to focus on strong investor appetite. March Housing permits increased 11.2% and Housing starts increased 7.2% for a strong rebound from the low February numbers. In US stocks, DJIA +65 points closing at 12266, S&P +7 points closing at 1312 and NASDAQ +9 points closing at 2744. Looking ahead, Marching Existing Home Sales are forecast at 5mln vs. 4.88mln previously.

The Euro (EUR) found support and rallied even as the German Finance minister commented that a Greek restructuring is inevitable. The market found broad strength with both EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP outperforming. April PMI surveys were slightly weaker as the Composite fell to 57.8 from 58.2 previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4204 and a high of 1.4375 before closing the day around 1.4340 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March German PPI forecast at 0.8% vs. 07%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened as risk appetite picked up and the market bought Yen crosses aggressively from week lows on Monday. A short term base has been found at the Y82.50 region and a test of Y83 is likely on coming sessions. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.35 and a high of 82.90 before closing the day around 82.60 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) found support and broke through 1.6300 in the European session to hit day highs in the US. The MPC minutes released today could provide further support if it shows more members contemplating a rate hike at the April meeting. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6228 and a high of 1.6342 before closing the day at 1.6320 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April MPC Minutes forecast at 3-6-0.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged back above 1.0500 as the risk off trade proved only temporary and threatens once again to test 1.0580 all time highs while risk appetite remain strong. AUD/JPY is testing Y87 and a break above could encourage more buyers into the market. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0441 and a high of 1.0556 before closing the day at 1.0520 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) traded briefly at $1500 an ounce for fresh record highs but pulled back from the key level as profit taking capped. Overall trading with a low of USD$1487 and high of USD $1500 before ending the New York session at USD$1495 an ounce. Crude was volatile falling sharply to $106 support before bouncing aggressively to $108. WTI Oil Closed +$1.03 at $108.15 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4062

1.4152

1.4390

1.4450

1.4520

USD/JPY

81.31

82.37

82.80

83.27

83.78

GBP/USD

1.6091

1.6227

1.6340

1.6385

1.6516

AUD/USD

1.0315

1.0443

1.0570

1.0584

1.0600

XAU/USD

1452.00

1471

1496

1500

1513

OIL/USD

106.00



108.00

108.40

110.00

113.50





Euro - 1.4390

Initial support at 1.4152 (Apr 5 low) followed by 1.4062 (Apr 1 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4450 (Apr 18 high) followed by 1.4520 (April 12 high)



Yen - 82.80

Initial support is located at 82.37 (March 30 low) followed by 81.31 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.27 (Mar 30 low) followed by 83.78 (Apr 15 High).

Pound - 1.6340

Initial support at 1.6227 (April 12 low) followed by 1.6091 (Apr 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6385 (Apr 14 high) followed by 1.6516 (Dec 7 2009 high).



Australian Dollar - 1.0570

Initial support at 1.0443 (Apr 19 low) followed by the 1.0315 (Apr 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0584 (Apr 8 high) followed by 1.0600 (1.0412 plus 1.0289-1.0508).

Gold - 1496

Initial support at 1471 (Apr 15 low) followed by 1452 (Apr 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 1500 (Big Figure Major Resistance) followed by 1513 (1157.03 plus 1.618 of 1044.85-1265.30).



Oil - 108.40

Initial support at 108.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 106.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 110.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 113.50 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall