U.S. Dollar Trading (US) the May unemployment missed on Friday with +54k vs. +232k previously and the Unemployment rate increasing to 9.1% vs. 9.0% previously. The market initially bought the USD on the back of the weak numbers with stocks slumping but when news of a Greece deal emerged a broad risk rally began in most majors. In US stocks, DJIA -97 points closing at 12151, S&P -12 points closing at 1300 and NASDAQ -40 points closing at 2732.
The Euro (EUR) surged above 1.4600 late in the day after hitting day lows post US data. The market is positioned to resume the uptrend back towards 1.5000 with the Euro seen as passing the 'Greece test'. The crosses are all very strong with EUR/GBP breaking above 0.8900. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4451 and a high of 1.4642 before closing the day around 1.4625 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June Sentix forecast at 9.3 vs. 10.9 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY fell sharply towards Y80 after the weak US data but the crosses began to rally with stocks bouncing and EUR/JPY surging higher. USD/JPY is close to Y80 and a break here could lead quickly to further losses. The market will be closely watching any talk of BOJ intervention below this level. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.03 and a high of 81.01 before closing the day around 80.23 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) bounced with the Euro but underperformed with EUR/GBP pushed higher. The market is still not eager to buy the Pound with the UK economy under a cloud of stagflation. The Possibility of high inflation and low growth is a toxic mix that will make it hard for the Bank of England to raise rates. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6284 and a high of 1.6438 before closing the day at 1.6430 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) the risk currency was hurt from the weak US jobs numbers and stock market reaction but was able to find support at 1.0600 and rally back above 1.0700 to close on a strong footing. Traders are also watching the AUD/JPY which found support at the key Y85 level. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0593 and a high of 1.0773 before closing the day at 1.0725 in the New York session.
Oil & Gold (XAU) surged on the weak Non Farm numbers breaking above $1540 and closing on a strong footing. Overall trading with a low of USD$1524 and high of USD $1547 before ending the New York session at USD$1541 an ounce. Oil was able to shrug off sharp losses after the US job numbers missed. WTI Oil Closed -0.18 at $100.22 a barrel.
|Currency||Sup 2||Sup 1||Spot||Res 1||Res 2|
Euro - 1.4635
Initial support at 1.4305 (Jun 2 low) followed by 1.4257 (May 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4711 (76.4% retrace of 1.4940-1.3970) followed by 1.4800 (big figure resistance)
Yen - 80.30
Initial support is located at 80.00 (Big figure support) followed by 79.57 (May 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 81.33 (Jun 2 high) followed by 81.77 (May 19 high).
Pound - 1.6440
Initial support at 1.6268 (May 26 low) followed by 1.6132 (May 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6496 (Jun 1 high) followed by 1.6547 (May 31 high).
Australian Dollar - 1.0740
Initial support at 1.0609 (May 27 low) followed by the 1.0510 (May 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0758 (May 31 high) followed by 1.0877 (76.4% retrace of 1.1012-1.0441).
Gold - 1545
Initial support at 1518 (May 27 low) followed by 1504 (May 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 1550 (June 1 high) followed by 1577 (All time high).
Oil - 100.60
Initial support at 100.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 98.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 103.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 105.00 (Intraday Resistance).
Written by Anthony Darvall