U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a strong NFP print of +216k vs. +190k forecast, helped the USD to strengthen immediately after release but this was reversed by dovish comments from FED Dudley. Dudley commented that 'stronger recovery not a reason to reverse course on policy'. This combined with strong US stocks inspired a sharp reversal of most majors with EUR/USD and AUD/USD finishing at year highs. In US stocks, DJIA +56 points closing at 12376, S&P +6 points closing at 1332 and NASDAQ +8 points closing at 2789.
The Euro (EUR) was extremely volatile plummeting after the US data to the lower 1.4000 region before reversing above 1.4200 on strong EUR/JPY and risk appetite. February Unemployment rate fell to 9.9% vs. 10.0%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4061 and a high of 1.4243 before closing the day around 1.4225 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February EU PPI forecast at 0.7% m/m vs. 1.5% m/m previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was under heavy selling pressure with the strong US jobs data sending the USD/JPY soaring above Y84 and EUR/JPY to Y120. The return of the carry trade is on everyone's minds with the markets still thousands of pips off 2007 levels. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.42 and a high of 84.73 before closing the day around 84.15 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) challenged the Euro in volatility stakes plunging through 1.6000 before reversing and soaring above 1.6100 in late US trade. The market is still mixed on the GBP outlook and this is best highlighted in the EUR/GBP which continues to grind higher on Pound underperformance. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5972 and a high of 1.6134 before closing the day at 1.6108 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Construction PMI forecast at 54.9 vs. 56.5 previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was able to register fresh post float all time highs near 1.0400 on the back of very strong AUD/JPY flows and positive global investor risk appetite. Gold fell but Oil was able to soar once again to $108 a barrel and is a better indication of commodities strength. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0319 and a high of 1.0398 before closing the day at 1.0390 in the New York session.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold fell sharply at the start of the US session on the view central banks were moving more towards an inflation fighting stance. Overall trading with a low of USD$1420 and high of USD $1439 before ending the New York session at USD$1431 an ounce. Oil pushed another leg higher with the Libyan civil war continuing to provide support for the uptrend. WTI Oil Closed +$2.36 at $106.60 a barrel.
|Currency||Sup 2||Sup 1||Spot||Res 1||Res 2|
Euro - 1.4225
Initial support at 1.4021 (Mar 28 low) followed by 1.3981 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4249 (Mar 22 high) followed by 1.4282 (Nov 4 high)
Yen - 84.15
Initial support is located at 83.13 (Apr 1 low) followed by 82.57 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.00 (Big Level) followed by 85.62 (50% retrace of 94.99-76.25).
Pound - 1.6120
Initial support at 1.5937 (Mar 28 low) followed by 1.5873 (50% retrace of 1.5345-1.6401). Initial resistance is now at 1.6169 (50% retrace of 1.6401-1.5937) followed by 1.6267 (Mar 24 high).
Australian Dollar - 1.0395
Initial support at 1.0269 (Mar 30 low) followed by the 1.0205 (Mar 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0400 (Big Figure Resistance) followed by 1.0425 (0.9706 plus 0.9537-1.0256).
Gold - 1430
Initial support at 1402 (Mar 18 low) followed by 1386 (Mar 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 1439 (Mar 31 high) followed by 1450 (Round Number).
Oil - 108.50
Initial support at 108.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 108.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 110.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 111.00 (Intraday Resistance).
Written by Anthony Darvall