Daily Outlook - US Jobs Growing at Fastest Pace in 9 Months

By @ibtimes on

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the dollar closed the week on a soft footing after US Job numbers were overlooked and investors instead focused on Oil Prices. Oil Surged again on Friday above $104 as Libyan violence remained widespread. February NonFarm Payrolls at 192k vs. 36k previously and the Unemployment Rate fell to 8.9% vs. 9.1% previously. In US stocks, DJIA -88 points closing at 12170, S&P -9 points closing at 1321 and NASDAQ -14 points closing at 2784. Looking ahead, January Consumer Credit forecast at 2.75bn vs. 6.1bn previously.

The Euro (EUR) some whippy action post Non Farm Payrolls saw 1.4000 tested before failing and consolidating just under the figure. The market is buying the Euros on strengthening expectations that the ECB will be raising rates earlier than the US. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3936 and a high of 1.4006 before closing the day around 1.3983 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March EU Sentix forecast at 16 vs. 16.7 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) risk off trading sent the yen stronger across the board with crosses tracking the stock market lower. USD/JPY failed to hold initial gains after the US job numbers and was rejected sharply from the Y83 level. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.19 and a high of 83.00 before closing the day around 82.35 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) whipped violently between 1.6250 and 1.6300 5 times throughout the day as traders kept to the range. February House Prices fell -0.9% vs. -0.5% forecast. EUR/GBP stayed close the 0.8600 consolidating the recent rally. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6233 and a high of 1.6305 before closing the day at 1.6268 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) found support under 1.0100 and grinded higher for the rest of the day tracking the Euro strength. AUD/JPY was under pressure as the USD/JPY countered the AUD/USD rebound and risk appetite was off on Friday night. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0073 and a high of 1.0147 before closing the day at 1.0135 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) resumed the uptrend head back towards $1440 all-time highs. Overall trading with a low of USD$1415 and high of USD $1432 before ending the New York session at USD$1431 an ounce. Oil is soaring on middle east concerns with frenzied buying pushing the market relentlessly higher. WTI Oil Closed +$2.51 at $104.42 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3744

1.3833

1.3990

1.4086

1.4282

USD/JPY

81.13

81.73

82.35

83.54

83.98

GBP/USD

1.6145

1.6216

1.6260

1.6344

1.6458

AUD/USD

0.9982

1.0088

1.0145

1.0202

1.0256

XAU/USD

1389.00

1409

1436

1442

1450

OIL/USD

103.50

105.0

105.30

106.50

108.00

Euro - 1.3990

Initial support at 1.3833 (Mar 3 low) followed by 1.3744 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4086 (Nov 8 high) followed by 1.4282 (Nov 4 high)

Yen - 82.35

Initial support is located at 81.73 (Mar 3 low) followed by 81.13 (Feb 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.54 (Feb 22 high) followed by 83.98 (Feb 16 High).

Pound - 1.6260

Initial support at 1.6216 (Mar 2 low) followed by 1.6145 (61.8% retrace of 1.6031-1.6330). Initial resistance is now at 1.6344 (March 2 low) followed by 1.6458 (Jan 19, 2010 high).

Australian Dollar - 1.0145

Initial support at 1.0088 (Feb 25 low) followed by the 0.9982 (Feb 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0202 (Mar 1 high) followed by 1.0256 (Dec 31 high).

Gold - 1436

Initial support at 1409 (Mar 1 low) followed by 1389 (Feb 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1442 (1392.65 plus 1418.15-1368.28) followed by 1450 (Round Figure Resistance).

Oil - 105.30

Initial support at 105.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 99.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 103.50 (Feb Spike High) followed by 105.00 (Big Figure resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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