U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) when the US session opened a sharp sell off was seen in equities which sent the Dollar higher against risk assets on safe haven demands. The middle east turmoil threatens to derail the recent 3 month rally seen in global markets especially if uprisings spread to Iran or Saudi Arabia. In US stocks, DJIA -178 points closing at 12212, S&P -27 points closing at 1315 and NASDAQ -77 points closing at 2756. Looking ahead, January Existing Home Sales forecast at 5.24mln vs. 5.28mn previously.

The Euro (EUR) fell sharply in Asia on the general risk aversion and Euro Debt concerns but recovered sharply in in the European session on more comments from ECB officials regarding interest rate hikes to counter inflation. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3523 and a high of 1.3715 before closing the day around 1.3675 in the New York session. Looking ahead, December Industrial Orders -0.8% vs. 2.1%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) had a volatile trading day with risk aversion sending the Yen higher across the board. The USD/JPY was able to spike higher in Asia to Y83.40 after Moody's put Japan on negative watch.  Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.99 and a high of 83.55 before closing the day around 83.15 in the New York session. Update January Trade Balance at -471bn vs. 60bn forecast.

The Sterling (GBP) was under heavy selling pressure against all the majors with risk turned off. Cable moved back to 1.6100 and EUR/GBP moved back towards 0.8500. GBP/JPY was also under pressure as the recent rally reversed. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6099 and a high of 1.6231 before closing the day at 1.6130 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke through parity as the market sold the risk currency heavily across the board. Adding to the selling pressure was news of a major Earth Quake in the New Zealand which hurt the NZD and overflowed into the Aussie as well. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9965 and a high of 1.0087 before closing the day at 0.9990 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) profit taking kept the precious metal close to $1400. Overall trading with a low of USD$1392 and high of USD $1411 before ending the New York session at USD$1398 an ounce. Oil ended lower but was extremely volatile. WTI Oil Closed -$2.10 at $95.50 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3463

1.3537

1.3695

1.3736

1.3825

USD/JPY

82.22

82.34

82.80

83.54

83.75

GBP/USD

1.5987

1.6076

1.6170

1.6228

1.6279

AUD/USD

0.9944

0.9960

1.0025

1.0097

1.0158

XAU/USD

1382.00

1389

1398

1410

1417

OIL/USD

91.50

95.00

95.30

98.50

100.00





Euro - 1.3695

Initial support at 1.3537 (Feb 17 low) followed by 1.3463 (Feb 16 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3736 (Feb 10 high) followed by 1.3825 (Feb 3 High)



Yen - 82.80

Initial support is located at 82.34 (Feb 10 low) followed by 82.22 (61.8% retrace of 81.13-83.98). Initial resistance is now at 83.54 (Feb 22 high) followed by 83.75 (Feb 17 High).

Pound - 1.6170

Initial support at 1.6076 (Feb 17 low) followed by 1.5987 (Feb 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6228 (Feb 22 high) followed by 1.6279 (Feb 3 High).



Australian Dollar - 1.0025

Initial support at 0.9960 (Feb 16 low) followed by the 0.9944 (Feb 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0097 (Feb 22 high) followed by 1.0158 (Feb 18 high).

Gold - 1398

Initial support at 1389 (Feb 21 low) followed by 1382 (Feb 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 1410 (Feb 22 high) followed by 1417 (Jan 4 high).



Oil - 95.30

Initial support at 95.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 92.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 98.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 100.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall