Daily Outlook - USD Gains as Oil and Euro Soften

By @ibtimes on

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the USD hit month highs on slumping Oil and pullbacks in most majors. Weekly Jobless Claims were at 434k vs. 474k previously. April US retail Sales increased to 0.5% vs. 0.4% previously m/m. In US stocks, DJIA +65 points closing at 12695, S&P +6 points closing at 1348 and NASDAQ +17 points closing at 2863. Looking ahead, May UoM Sentiment forecast at 70 vs. 69.8. April CPI forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.1% previously.

The Euro (EUR) the Euro slumped in Europe to fresh month lows just above 1.4100. March EU Industrial production forecast at -0.2% vs. 0.4% previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4128 and a high of 1.4278 before closing the day around 1.4245 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Q1 GDP forecast at 0.6% vs. 0.3% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was very calm against the USD pivoting the Y81 level as Dollar strength competed against weakness in the Yen crosses. EUR/JPY hit new lows under Y115 but was able to bounce and close just above the key level. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.69 and a high of 81.31 before closing the day around 80.95 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was weak as UK economic data continued to disappoint which is fuelling concerns about the economic recovery. Cable broke below 1.6300 and EUR/GBP edge up to 0.8750. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6230 and a high of 1.6380 before closing the day at 1.6275 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was crushed lower on surprisingly weak April jobs data at -22.1k vs. 17.6k previously. The Unemployment Rate stayed at 4.9% but the market broke below 1.0600 in Asia and then day lows in Europe before bouncing and testing 1.0700 in the US session. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0565 and a high of 1.0699 before closing the day at 1.0670 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) dipped below $1500 but found support and closed at opening levels. Overall trading with a low of USD$1478 and high of USD $1507 before ending the New York session at USD$1503 an ounce. Volatility continued with support at $95 found before rallying briefly above $100 in the US session. WTI Oil Closed +$078 at $98.97 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4021

1.4062

1.4195

1.4442

1.4500

USD/JPY

78.83

80.62

80.85

81.69

82.28

GBP/USD

1.6091

1.6166

1.6250

1.6380

1.6517

AUD/USD

1.0443

1.0579

1.0625

1.0889

1.0953

XAU/USD

1462.00

1471

1504

1526

1551

OIL/USD

97.00

98.00

98.40

100.00

103.00

Euro - 1.4195

Initial support at 1.4062 (Apr 11 low) followed by 1.4021 (Mar 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4442 (May 9 high) followed by 1.4500 (Key level)

Yen - 80.85

Initial support is located at 80.62 (May 11 low) followed by 78.83 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 81.69 (May 2 low) followed by 82.28 (Apr 28 High).

Pound - 1.6250

Initial support at 1.6166 (Apr 18 low ) followed by 1.6091 (Apr 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6380 (May 12 high) followed by 1.6517 (May 11 high).

Australian Dollar - 1.0625

Initial support at 1.0579 (May 6 low) followed by the 1.0443 (Apr 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0889 (May 11 high) followed by 1.0953 (May 3 high).

Gold - 1504

Initial support at 1471 (May 6 low) followed by 1462 (May 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1526 (May 11 high) followed by 1551 (May 3 high).

Oil - 98.40

Initial support at 98.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 97.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 100.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 103.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

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