U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) profit taking from Friday's selling allowed the USD to gain steadily throughout most of the day. Fed Chief Bernanke speaking in a TV interview stated that Unemployment remained  stubbornly high and that it was possible to expand QE past the 600bn announced. In US stocks, DJIA -19 points closing at 11362, S&P -1 points closing at 1223 and NASDAQ +3 points closing at 2594. Looking ahead, October Consumer Credit is previously at 2.15bn.

The Euro (EUR) was not helped at the start of the European session by the downgrade of Hungary's credit rating or by disagreements within the EU in regards to the expansion of the Bailout fund. Support was found at 1.3250 before recovering in the US Session. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3245 and a high of 1.3423 before closing at 1.3320. Looking ahead, October German Industrial Orders is forecast at 2% vs. -4% m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the quietest pair in the market ranging in 30 pip range for most of the day against the USD but did manage gains against the EUR and GBP. The USD/JPY direction will be largely dependent on the US data this week. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 82.55 and a high of 83.01 before closing the day around 82.65 in the New York session.  

The Sterling (GBP) was heavy for most of the day with risk off trading and a resurgent USD. EUR/GBP fell from the 0.8500 level and could resume its downtrend if Eurozone issues flare up. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5653 and a high of 1.5773 before closing the day at 1.5715 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October industrial Output forecast at 0.25% vs. 0.4% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was under pressure due to profit taking with investors sidelined ahead of today's RBA rate announcement widely forecast to remain at 4.75% due to weakness in some key economic data last month. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9487 and a high of 0.9926 before closing the US session at 0.9890. Looking ahead, RBA Rate announcement forecast to remain at 4.75%.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold took advantage of the sovereign debt concerns to push higher to fresh record highs. Overall trading with a low of USD$1408 and high of USD $1428 before ending the New York session at USD$1420 an ounce. Oil eased slightly on profit taking after rallying aggressively last week. WTI Oil Closed -$0.15 at $89.20 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2830

1.2969

1.3290

1.3419

1.3634

USD/JPY

81.83

82.53

82.60

84.41

85.40

GBP/USD

1.5297

1.5485

1.5715

1.5788

1.5838

AUD/USD

0.9477

0.9537

0.9885

0.9939

1.000

XAU/USD

1351.00

1400

1420

1428

1438

OIL/USD

87.0

88.00

88.75

90.00

91.00





Euro - 1.3290

Initial support at 1.2969 (Nov 30 low) followed by 1.2830 (Sep 14 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3419 (Dec 3 high) followed by 1.3634 (Nov 23 high)



Yen - 82.60

Initial support is located at 82.53 (Dec 3 low) followed by 81.83 (0.618 of 80.23-84.40). Initial resistance is now at 84.41 (Nov 29 high) followed by 85.40 (Sept 24 high).

Pound - 1.5715

Initial support at 1.5485 (Nov 30 Low) followed by 1.5297 (Sep 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5788 (Dec 3 high) followed by 1.5838 (Nov 24 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.9885

Initial support at 0.9537 (Dec 1 low) followed by the 0.9477 (50% retrace of 0.8771-1.0183). Initial resistance is now at 0.9939 (Dec 3 high) followed by 1.0000 (Psychological Resistance).

Gold - 1420

Initial support at 1400 (Big Figure) followed by 1351 (Nov 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1428 (Dec 6 high) followed by 1438 (1329.70 plus 1315.45-1424.60).

Oil - 88.75

Initial support at 88.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 87.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 90.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 91.00 (Intraday Resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall