U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) markets swung widely yesterday with a 5% bounce in Asian stocks reversing in the European and US sessions and the Dow Jones Crashing over 200 points. In late trade after the US close the USD/JPY broke to fresh all time lows at Y76.30. In US stocks, DJIA -242 points closing at 11613, S&P -24 points closing at 1256 and NASDAQ -50 points closing at 2616. Looking ahead, February CPI forecast at 0.4% m/m. Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 387k vs. 397k previously. February Industrial Output forecast at 0.6% vs. -0.1%.

The Euro (EUR) struggled under risk aversion but was calm against the Dollar finding support under 1.3900. EUR/JPY was much more volatile crashing to Y106.50 in late trade. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3865 and a high of 1.4003 before closing the day around 1.3905 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Swiss Libor Rate forecast to remain at 0.25%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) once again stole the limelight with the market punching through Y80 to hit large stops and plummet under Y77 before reversing on fears of Government intervention. The whole market is focused on the nuclear incident near Tokyo with fear and uncertainty running the market in wild swings. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 76.72 and a high of 82.06 before closing the day around 78.00 in the New York session. Looking ahead, attention of the ongoing Nuclear Plant disaster.

The Sterling (GBP) was under heavy selling pressure and is struggling to hold on the 1.6000 handle but has held so far. A break lower would send the Cable lower and EUR/GBP into new highs with the European single currency much safer than the risk sensitive pound. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5980 and a high of 1.6134 before closing the day at 1.6005 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) took the brunt of the risk aversion for the second day hammered lower as AUD/JPY collapsed 7% at one point. Large moves in the Aussie when the market experiences major events are normal with long positions built up for months existed in days. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9702 and a high of 0.9967 before closing the day at 0.9790 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) was volatile but under pressure as safe haven buying struggled to offset liquidations by investors trying to free up some cash. Overall trading with a low of USD$1386 and high of USD $1406 before ending the New York session at USD$1398 an ounce. Oil spiked higher on middle unrest. WTI Oil Closed +$1.16 at $98.34 a barrel.



TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3705

1.3855

1.3895

1.4013

1.4086

USD/JPY

75.00

76.70

79.65

80.00

81.17

GBP/USD

1.5845

1.5962

1.5990

1.6185

1.6344

AUD/USD

0.9625

0.9753

0.9800

1.0000

1.0256

XAU/USD

1360.00

1381

1391

1429

1444

OIL/USD

96.50



97.00

97.65

98.50

100.00





Euro - 1.3895

Initial support at 1.3855 (Mar 15 low) followed by 1.3705 (Feb 24 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4013 (Mar 15 high) followed by 1.4086 (Nov 8 high)



Yen - 79.65

Initial support is located at 76.70 (Mar 16 low) followed by 75.00 (Big Figure Support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 (Big Figure Resistance) followed by 81.17 (Mar 16 High).

Pound - 1.5990

Initial support at 1.5962 (38.2% retrace of 1.5345-1.6344) followed by 1.5845 (50% retrace of 1.5345-1.6344). Initial resistance is now at 1.6185 (March 15 low) followed by 1.6344 (Mar 2 high).



Australian Dollar - 0.9800

Initial support at 0.9753 (Dec 8 low) followed by the 0.9625 (Dec 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0000 (Parity) followed by 1.0202 (Mar 1 high).

Gold - 1391

Initial support at 1381 (Mar 15) followed by 1360 (61.8% retrace of 1308.25-1444.95). Initial resistance is now at 1429 (Mar 15 high) followed by 1458 (1410.32 plus 1392.65-1440.32).



Oil - 97.65

Initial support at 97.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 96.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 98.50 (Big figure resistance) followed by 100.00 (intraday resistance).





Written by Anthony Darvall