Focus of the day is US non-farm payroll in December which is anticipated to have reduced by -550K (November: -533K) with severe drop in manufacturing and business services sectors. Although initial jobless claims reported yesterday fell 25K to 467K after a decline of 98K in the week before, it's probably skewed by holiday season. However, other indicators such as continuing claims and December's ADP employment released Wednesday (job loss: -693K vs -450K in consensus) came in much worse than expected. Unemployment rate in December would have risen to 7% for the first time since 1993. Average hourly earnings in December probably increased by 0.2% after gaining 0.4% in November.
Released in early European session, Germany retail sales rose 0.7% mom in Nov, dropped -3.0% yoy. Eurozone retail sales is expected to be unchanged mom in Nov, dropped -1.6% yoy.
Over the last 2 weeks, we have received weaker data in the UKmanufacturing sector: manufacturing PMI and BoE Agents' manufacturing output indicators all deteriorated sharply. Subject to downside risk, November's industrial production probably dropped -0.6% mom after falling -1.7% in October while manufacturing production should have contracted -0.7% mom after plunging -1.4% in the previous month. PPI in December is expected to have moderated further with core PPI came in at -0.3% mom, 4.6% yoy given decline in commodity prices. Producer input and output price inflation are expected to be -2.3% mom/2.8% yoy and -0.7% mom/3.8% yoy respectively. .
In Canada, unemployment is expected to have climbed to 6.5% with 21K more people losing jobs during the month. Property remains sluggish and housing starts should have only increased by 170K units (November: 172K) in December while building permits were down -5% in November.