Australian dollar rises today on the back on unexpectedly good employment report. The job market expanded for another month by 24.5k in in October versus expectation of -10.1k contraction. Though, unemployment rate climbed from 5.7% to 5.8% as expected. AUD/USD soars to as high as 0.9368 so far. While upside momentum is diminishing a bit, there is still no clear sign of topping in Aussie yet and the current rise in AUD/USD might still extend further to a test of 2008 high of 0.9849. Against Euro, EUR/AUD, took out previous low of 1.6079 and dives to as low as 1.6017. We're still expecting further downside in the EUR/AUD cross towards lower trend line support at 1.5702 next.
Elsewhere, dollar continues to stay in range against other major currencies. Gold rose to another record high of 1123.4 and remains firm for medium term projection target at 1133.2. Nevertheless, dollar index manages to hold above yesterday's low of 74.78 and consolidates. Weakness in Asian stocks is helping the greenback a bit. According to an article in Financial Times, an IMF economists says that dollar's role of the world's reserve currency should be reduced, and share with a few other currencies such as Euro and perhaps Chinese Yuan. Looking at the dollar index, with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, some more consolidations could be seen. But after all, recovery should be limited below 75.99 resistance and bring fall resumption to next medium term support at 74.31.
On the data front, New Zealand retail sales missed expectation and was flat in September. Japan Domestic CGPI dropped -6.7% yoy in Oct. Swiss ZEW, Eurozone industrial production, Canadian new housing price index and US jobless claims will be released later today.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9264; (P) 0.9303; (R1) 0.9336; More
AUD/USD's rally resumes after brief consolidations and reaches as high as 0.9368 so far. The break of 0.9326 confirms that medium term up trend has resumed too. At this point, intraday bias will remain on the upside as long as 0.9250 minor support holds and further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.8567 to 0.9326 from 0.8915 at 0.9674 next. On the downside, below 0.9250 will indicate that a short term top might be formed and deeper pull back should be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9207) and below.
In the bigger picture, the break of 0.9326 resistance confirms that medium term up trend from 0.6008 is still in progress and further rally should be seen towards 0.9849 long term high next. On the downside, sustained trading below the channel support (now at 0.0.17) will in turn indicate that AUD/USD has topped out in medium term. Further break of 0.8915 support will confirm by completing a double top reversal pattern and should bring deep pull back to 0.7702/8262 support zone.
Economic Indicators Update
|21:45||NZD||Retail Sales M/M Sep||0.00%||0.40%||1.20%|
|23:50||JPY||Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index Y/Y Oct||-6.70%||-6.00%||-7.90%||-8.00%|
|0:30||AUD||Employment Change Oct||24.5K||-10.1K||40.6K||39.8K|
|0:30||AUD||Unemployment Rate Oct||5.80%||5.80%||5.70%|
|9:00||EUR||ECB Monthly Bulletin||--||--|
|10:00||CHF||ZEW Expectations Nov||--||65|
|10:00||EUR||Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Sep||0.50%||0.90%|
|10:00||EUR||EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Sep||-14.10%||-15.40%|
|13:30||CAD||New Housing Price Index m/m||0.20%||0.10%|
|13:30||USD||Initial Jobless Claims||510K||512K|
|16:00||USD||Crude Oil Inventories||1.1M||-4.0M|
|19:00||USD||Federal Budget Statement Oct||-$150.0B||-$155.5B|