Dollar recovered overnight as rally in crude oil stalled ahead of 82.0 resistance while gold retreats ahead of 1130 level. The greenback is regathering some strength in early European session as gold's recovery lost steam and is back pressing 1120 level. The technical picture of dollar index suggests that recent rally is possibly ready to resume but the development will depend on risk sentiments, which could be heavily affected by the services and job data today, as well as FOMC minutes.
Some important services data will be released today. Finalized Eurozone PMI services is expected to be revised slightly up to 53.7 in December. Eurozone PPI is expected to rise 0.2% mom, -4.5% yoy in November. Eurozone industrial new orders are expected to drop -1.0% mom, -11.0% yoy in October. From UK, PMI services is expected to rise slightly to from 56.6 to 56.9 in December. From US, ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to climb back to above 50 at 50.5 after last month's disappointment.
In addition to services data, focus will also be on job data from US. ADP report is expected to show -75k contraction in the private sector in December. Last month's NFP was exceptionally strong and showed -11k contraction in November only. Markets are speculating that slight upward revision in the figure would indeed indicate that the US economy has already started adding jobs. Consensus for December's NFP is flat and will need a solid ADP figure today to support the expectation.
Looking at the dollar index, the strong recovery from 77.09 argues that consolidations from 78.45 might have completed with three waves down already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside and break of 78.19 resistance will affirm the case that rise from 74.19 is resuming. In such case, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 74.19 at 80.08. On the downside, below 77.58 minor support will delay the immediate bullish view and argue that more consolidations would be seen first. Nevertheless, downside is still expected to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 74.19 to 78.45 at 76.82.