Markets are staying in range as 2009 starts with the greenback mildly firmer. Main focus remains on any follow through price actions to Wednesday's reversal in Euro and Sterling. Note again that EUR/USD and EUR/JPY have showed signs of topping at 1.4719 and 131.03. More importantly, EUR/GBP should have made a short term top at 0.9799 too. On the other hand, the pound showed strong rebound in GBP/JPY as well as in GBP/USD. It will be interesting to see if there's any reversal of fortune between the two major currencies.
Manufacturing data is the main focus today. From Eurozone, finalized PMI Manufacturing index is expected to come in at 34.5, down from prior 35.6. Despite the aggressive rate cut by the BoE, UK's PMI in December continued to fall to 33.5, according to market expectation, from 34.4. Also from UK, the Halifax housing price index is expected to show further decline in house prices, down from 14.9% yoy to -16.6% yoy in Dec.
US ISM manufacturing index is expected to deteriorate further to 35.5 in December, another new low since 1982 after falling to 36.2 in November. Price paid index is expected to drop further from 25.5. to 20.5. Also, the employment component will likely stay deep in contraction region below 50.
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.43; (P) 131.84; (R1) 133.70
GBP/JPY's recovery from 129.85 is limited by 4 hours 55 EMA and retreats mildly. With 134.36 minor resistance intact, intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. However, while some more fall cannot be ruled out, we're still expecting downside to be contained by mentioned 128.92/129.32 support zone to conclude the decline from 165.02. Break of 134.36 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and bring strong rally to 139.19 resistance first. However, sustained break of 128.92/129.32 will argue GBP/JPY is rebuilding downside momentum for further decline.
In the bigger picture, while decline from 215.87 should be near to completion. The fall from 215.87 is treated as a five wave sequence, with first wave completed at 184.47, second at 197.42, third at 139.02, fourth at 165.02. In other words, decline from 165.02 is probably the fifth wave in such sequence. Note that firstly, the structure of the fall from 165.02 suggests that it might be in form of a diagonal triangle (or falling wedge). Secondly, bullish convergence conditions are seen in daily MACD and RSI. Both are supporting the view that it's a fifth wave. Also note that 129.32 key long term support is in proximity to 61.8% projection of 197.42 to 139.02 from 165.02 at 128.92.
Having said that, we'd expect the decline from 215.87 to make a medium term bottom after meeting 128.92/129.32 support zone. Break of 139.19 will be consistent with this case and bring strong rebound towards first medium term resistance at 165.02 at least. On the downside, however, sustained break of 128.92/129.32 will pave the way to 100% projection target at 106.62.