v U.S. Leading Indicators for the month of October rose 0.9%, above the expected 0.6% and the previous month's release of 0.1%.
v Italy's Monti won a confidence vote in the senate by a large majority of 281 out of 306.
v Canada's October inflation rate came in higher than forecast at 2.9% cementing that an interest rate cut is off the table.

The USD opened weaker across the board as speculation that the IMF (and potentially the ECB) will provide additional relief for Europe and push through the EFSF, but the greenback recouped some losses after the release of better-than-expected leading indicators. U.S. Leading Indicators for the month of October rose 0.9%, above the expected 0.6% and the previous month's release of 0.1%.  The market will turn to any additional commentary coming from three Fed speakers set to speak later today. Also look for continued volatility as we head into a thin market with the U.S. holiday next week.

The EUR pushed higher coming in off of overnight trading, but soon gave up its gains after the release of positive data in the U.S. Assisting the single currency's initial push higher was news that Italy's Monti won a confidence vote in the senate by a large majority with 281 out of 306 and Greece announced that with the debt swap in place the 2012 budget deficit would fall to 5.4%. ECB President Draghi spoke calling for a mandate in price stability and adding that countries should resist unilateral policy and focus on working together. The market will look towards this weekend's Spanish elections where expectations are for a win for Partido Popular, whose policies include increased austerity and reforms, which should continue to help support the euro and push the currency back above 1.36.

Sterling initially gained 0.7% coming off the overnight market, but soon gave back some of its gains against the greenback. The currency was able to initially push higher despite dovish comments by Bank of England member Weale, who told the Financial Times that it was reasonable to conclude that the BoE might look towards another round of quantitative easing. Despite the QE talk expectations are for sterling to remain supported as it sits as an alternative diversification currency to the euro.

The JPY pushed higher against a bearish dollar and continues to remain well supported against a basket of currencies. Look for the yen to continue to strengthen despite modest intervention from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Markets have focused on calls from Japanese officials, to stop excessive moves. The market will also look towards Monday's release of the BOJ's minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting.

The Commodity Currencies pushed higher across the board with AUD and NZD giving back some of its gains, but CAD holding steady. Canada released stronger than expected CPI with Canadian inflation better than expected at 2.9%, above the 2.7% expected release and lower than September's 3.2% figure. Also the Canadian Leading Indicator index rose 0.2% in October, above the 0.1% expected. AUD and NZD initially opened higher this morning, but soon gave back its gains on better than expected U.S. data.

The market will look toward the Conference Board of Australia's Leading Indicators report, as well as, Royal Bank of New Zealand's inflation expectations release and Canada's wholesale and retail sales reports all due out next week for further direction. Investors have started to increase bets that the RBA will cut interest rates further in the coming months while the RBNZ will keep rates on hold as inflation eases in both Australia and New Zealand and global demand declines. With gold holding in the $1700 range and oil flirting with $100, look for the currencies to remain broadly supported.

11/17/2011

CURRENT

EUR/USD

1.3556

USD/JPY

76.62

GBP/USD

1.5826

USD/CAD

1.0222

USD/MXN

13.7400

USD/CHF

0.9120

AUD/USD

1.0067

NZD/USD

0.7609

USD/ZAR

8.1920

USD/CNY

6.3565

10-Year Treasury Yield:

2.016%

Gold:  

 $ 1,719.59

Crude Oil: 

 $ 97.30

DJIA:

11,801.87

 

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This market summary is prepared by Union Bank's Global FX Department for the general information of its customers. It is based on the most accurate information currently available, but should not be considered investment advice or a guarantee of future exchange rates or trends.