* EURUSD: Invalidation Of The 13298 Level Highlights The 1.3081 Level And Beyond.

* GBPUSD: Pressure On The Downside Towards The 1.4352 Level Remains In Progress.


Having convincingly invalidated and held below the 1.3298 level, its Dec 11'08 high/former range top, focus has now turned to its Dec 04'08 low at 1.3081. A turn below the latter is expected to drive the pair further lower towards the 1.2551 level, its Dec 04'08 low with a loss of there opening up downside risk towards its YTD low at 1.2330.Momentum indicators on the weekly time frame are supportive of this though those of the daily are oversold. The daily indicators condition is the only risk at this stage that may trigger corrective upside as evidenced in its printing of a high wave candle on Wednesday. If this materializes, we could see nearer term upside recovery targeting the 1.3298/1.3313 zone, representing its Jan 06'09 low/Oct 30'08 high. Further out, the 1.3531 level, its Oct 20'08 high will be aimed at before the 1.3785 level, its Oct 09'08 high. On the whole, with the 1.3298 level taken out and a low of 1.3094 printed Wednesday, EUR now looks to head further lower towards its YTD low at 1.2330 in the days and weeks ahead.

Support Comments

1.3081 Nov 25'08 high

1.2551 Dec 04'08 low

1.2330 YTD low

Resistance Comments

1.3298 Dec 11'08 high/former range top

1.3531 Oct 20'08 high

1.3785 Oct 09'08 high


Despite a one-day of marginal gain on Wednesday ,pressure for price declines targeting its YTD low at 1.4352 low remains in progress. GBP's medium to longer term downtrends are firmly solid and a penetration of the latter (1.4352)will pave the way for run at the 1.4045 ,level, its Jan'02 low. Its daily studies are trending lower and pointing to the downside suggesting further weakness. Nearby support is located at the 1.4831 level, its Jan 01'08 ahead of the 1.5000 level followed by the 1.5374 level printed on Jan 08'08.In order for the reduction of the current downside pressure to be seen, a break and close above the 1.5374 level will have to occur. On the whole, while the 1.5374 level remains as resistance,GBP should recapture the 1.4352 level or even see the resumption of its longer term weakness triggered off the 2.1168 level in Nov'07

Support Comments

1.4558 Nov 13'08 low

1.4470 Dec 04'08 low

1.4352 YTD low

Resistance Comments

1.4831 Jan 01'09 high

1.5000 Psycho level

1.5250/65 Nov 19'08 high/Oct 24'08 low