Today's Focus: EURUSD & AUDUSD

  • EURUSD: Journey To The 1.2330 Level Begins
  • AUDUSD: Heading Towards The 0.6249 Level..


A sell off through the 1.2766 level, its Jan 23'09 low and the 1.2706 level, its Feb 02'09 low has opened the door for price acceleration towards the 1.2330 level where its 2008 swing low is located.However,on its way there it will have to cleanly break and hold below the 1.2551 level, marking its Dec 04'08 low to achieve that target. As highlighted in our Tuesday analysis, a weekly lower close will add more evidence for a quicker decline towards the 1.2330.A trade below the latter will bring losses to the 1.1860 level, its Mar'06 low and then its Nov'05 at 1.1640.Its weekly and daily studies are pointing lower implying further weakness. On the other hand, if any recovery materializes at this stage, its invalidated support at the 1.2706/66 zone is now expected to reverse roles and provide resistance. A break through there if seen should halt the current downside and bring further corrective upmove towards the 1.3000/1.2993 level, its psycho level/Feb 06'09 high with price extension towards its Feb 04'09/Nov 25'08 high at 1.3071/81.Further out, its Jan 27/28'09 highs at 1.3327/30 comes in as the next upside.Overall,while the pair continues to maintain its bearish medium term outlook, an invalidation of the 1.23330 level is now expected to trigger the resumption of that MT trend.

Support Comments
1.2551Dec 04'08 low
1.23302008 low
Resistance Comments
1.2706/66Feb 02'09 low /Jan 23'09 low
1.3000/1.2993psycho level/Feb 06'09 high.
1.3071/81Feb 04'09/Nov 25'08



As the cross continues to trade within its ST falling channel, it is now targeting its Feb 02'09 low at 0.6249 having taken out its minor support at the 0.6432 level, representing its Feb 12'09 low on Tuesday. Its channel bottom at the 0.6060 level will be the next downside objective on invalidating the 0.6249 and then its 2008 swing low at 0.6008.Although short term consolidation continues to prevail, maintaining within its established falling channel will call for a return to the 0.6008 level. Daily studies are trending lower supporting this view. Resistance levels are seen at the 0.6432 level followed by the 0.6842 level with a cut through there setting the stage for a move towards the 0.7019 level, its Jan 12'09.Overcoming the latter will put the pair in position to head further higher towards its Jan 06'09 high at 0.7269.On the whole, having held within its falling channel,AUDUSD remains vulnerable to additional weakness.

Support Comments
0.6418Jan 23'09 low
0.6292Dec 05'08 low
0.6008YTD low
Resistance Comments
0.6732Jan 28'09 high
0.6842Jan 19'09 high
0.7268Jan 06'09 high


Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst

This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report