Today's Focus: EURUSD & USDJPY
- EURUSD: Still Undecided Of Its Direction.
- USDJPY: Bullish And Strengthening.
The pair continues to find a direction closing marginally higher on Thursday following its Wednesday negative daily close. The 1.2514 level, its Feb 18'09 low and the 1.2992 level, its Feb 23'09 high have to give way to create immediate nearer term direction with a bigger and broader range seen between the 1.2330 level, its 2008 swing low and its Jan 27/28'09 highs at 1.3327/30.Until either of this level is decisively violated, any meaningful direction moves remain on hold. Supports below the 1.2330 level if broken are seen at the 1.1860 level, its Mar'06 low and then its Nov'05 at 1.1640 while above the 1.3327/30 area will call for higher prices towards the 1.3608 level, representing .50 Ret(1.4719-1.2514 declines) with a clearance of there opening up upside risk towards the 1.4309 level, its Dec 19'08 low. We still retain our overall outlook for the pair's retest and eventual break of the 1.2330 level while a bigger resistance zone at 1.3327/30 area remains unbroken. On the whole, EUR remains trapped in sideways range price activities.
|1.2706/66||Feb 02'09 low /Jan 23'09 low|
|1.2514||Jan 18'09 low|
|1.3000/1.2993||psycho level/Feb 06'09 high.|
|1.3071/81||Feb 04'09/Nov 25'08|
|1.3327/30||Jan 27/28'09 highs|
The pair has not only retained its bullish price action off the 87.13 level, its 2008/2009 swing lows but continues to strengthen breaking and holding above another key resistance at the 97.43 level, its Nov 24'08 high on Thursday. Having invalidated that level, focus has now turned to its psycho level/Nov 04'08 high at 100.00/55 with a break out through there putting the next upside target at the 102.22 level, representing its double bottom break out price objective. Additionally, bullishness is also seen on weekly daily studies. The immediate risk remains its overbought condition and a negative price action triggered in early morning trading today. Downside targets are located at the 97.43 level and the 96.00 level (psycho level) with a strong support positioned at the 94.62 level, its Jan 06'09 high. This level if others fail is expected to reverse roles and provide support thereby turning the pair higher again.Overall,the short term uptrend started at the 87.13 zone remains intact despite its nearer term corrective pullback risks.
|97.43||Nov 24'08 high|
|94.62||Jan 06'09 high|
|100.55||Nov 04'08 high|
|102.22||Double bottom price target|
|103.05||Oct 14'09 high|
This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report