Today's Focus: GBPUSD & AUDUSD

  • GBPUSD:Holding Above Its ST Declining Channel.
  • AUDUSD:Pressure Remains To The Upside.


Reversal of intra day losses Wednesday saw GBP decisively break through its ST declining channel to close the session at 1.4269.This has now paved the way for further upside gains towards the 1.4662 level, its Feb 23'09 high. We envisage a retarget of its Jan 16'09/Feb 09'09 highs at 1.4981/86 if the latter level is invalidated resuming its recovery off the 1.3504 level and clearing the way for additional upside towards the 1.5374 level, its Jan 08'09 high. The daily Stochastics and RSI are positive and heading higher suggesting additional upmove. To the downside, a turn back into the mentioned broken declining channel followed with a close below the 1.4137 level, its Feb 12'09 low and its Feb 02'09 low at 1.4052 must occur to void the current break out. This will bring downside pressure towards its Mar 11'09 low at 1.3655 and then its YTD low at 1.3504 level. All in all, although our overall view(medium to longer term)remains lower, further corrective upmove may have been triggered in the nearer term.

Support Comments

1.4137 Feb 12'09 low

1.4052 Jan'2002 low

1.3655 Mar 11'09 low

Resistance Comments

1.4662 Feb 23'09 high

1.4981/86 Jan 16'09/Feb 09'09 highs

1.5374 Jan 08'09 high


A sharp rally on Wednesday put the pair on another day of a positive close which now opens up upside risk towards its Feb 09'09 high at 0.6850.On a convincing break and hold above there, its range top at 0.7269 will be under attack where a breach if seen could bring the pair out of its present broader range and trigger upside gains towards the 0.7356 level, its Oct 07'09 high though the 0.7269 level may initially reject such incursions. Its daily studies are heading higher supporting this view. On any pullback from the current price levels, its Mar 04'09 high at 0.6527 will initially be targeted followed by its Feb 02'09 low at 0.6249 with a cut through there paving the way for a run at its 2008 swing low at 0.6008 level. On the whole, upside momentum build up remains intact and AUDUSD should see further upmove which is now supported by across the board dollar weakness.

Support Comments

0.6527 Mar 04'09 high

0.6249 Feb 02'09 low

.6008 Oct'08 low

Resistance Comments

0.6850 Feb 09'09 high

0.7269 Range top

0.7356 Oct 07'09 high