Daily Trading Outlook FX, Gold, Oil, Equities

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JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) declined 0.9 percent to pace losses in financial companies. Limited Brands Inc., owner of the Victoria's Secret lingerie chain, slid 2 percent amid disappointing forecasts. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), the largest retailer, rose 3.1 percent as earnings beat projections. Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD), the retailer controlled by hedge fund manager Edward Lampert, added 8.1 percent after reporting a profit.

S&P 500 futures expiring in June lost less than 0.1 percent to 1,322.2 at 8:44 a.m. New York time. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 9 points, or 0.1 percent, to 12,583.

One of 2 things are set to happen in Europe, the EU will cease to exist in their current form or the Euro will collapse to around 86c US according to Economist Shayne Heffernan.

Concern about Europe's crisis drove the S&P 500 down 2.4 percent in four days. The euro fell to a four-month low today as Spain's borrowing costs rose at an auction, stoking concern that the region's financial contagion is spreading from Greece. Moody's will probably announce rating downgrades for Spanish banks today, Expansion reported, citing people familiar with the situation it didn't identify by name.

Central banks across the globe continued the now established trend of net purchasing with demand in Q1 2012 reaching 80.8t. Demand was driven by Eastern Europe with Russia and Kazakhstan adding to their holdings and accounting for a substantial amount of the purchasing. Mexico's central bank made the largest single purchase of 16.8t. The main driver for this demand by emerging market central banks is the need to diversify their holdings.

First quarter gold investment demand (including gold bars, coins, ETFs and similar products) grew by 13% year-on-year to 389.3t. In US$ terms, this equated to a demand value of US$21.2bn, 38% higher year-on-year. Increases in demand for ETFs and medals/imitation coins meant that demand reached 389.3t, 45.8t above Q1 2011 despite declines in demand for physical bars and coins.

First quarter demand for ETFs and similar products totalled 51.4t, equivalent to a value of US$2.8bn; in stark contrast to the first quarter of 2011, when the sector witnessed net outflows.

Economist Shayne Heffernan of LTN www.livetradingnews.com takes a look at the day ahead.

Crude Oil (Jun 12) intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 94.25
Our Preference: SHORT positions below 94.25 with 91.8 & 91 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 94.25 will call for 95.15 & 95.7.
Comment: the RSI has struck against a major resistance around 70% and is reversing down.

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Opinion published is an intraday view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced width=1

 

 

GOLD (Spot) intraday: rebound in sight.Pivot: 1537.00
Our Preference: LONG positions above 1537 with 1559 & 1565 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1537 will call for 1520 & 1500.
Comment: the RSI calls for a rebound.

width=590Opinion published is an intraday view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced

 

EUR/USD intraday: under pressure.Pivot: 1.273
Our preference: Short positions below 1.273 with targets @ 1.266 & 1.2625 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.273 look for further upside with 1.276 & 1.2815 as targets.
Comment: the pair is breaking below its support and should face further weakness.

width=590Opinion published is an intraday view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced

 

GBP/USD intraday: under pressure.Pivot: 1.59
Our preference: Short positions below 1.59 with targets @ 1.581 & 1.576 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.59 look for further upside with 1.595 & 1.6 as targets.
Comment: the pair is breaking below its support and should face further weakness as the RSI is badly directed.

width=590Opinion published is an intraday view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced

 

USD/CAD intraday: the upside prevails.Pivot: 1.0085
Our preference: Long positions above 1.0085 with targets @ 1.017 & 1.02 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.0085 look for further downside with 1.005 & 1.002 as targets.
Comment: the RSI has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.

width=590Opinion published is an intraday view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced

 

USD/JPY intraday: the upside prevails.Pivot: 80.1
Our preference: Long positions above 80.1 with targets @ 80.55 & 80.65 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 80.1 look for further downside with 79.95 & 79.8 as targets.
Comment: the pair is rebounding and should reach its previous high.

width=590Opinion published is an intraday view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced

 

AUD/USD intraday: under pressure.Pivot: 0.9965
Our preference: Short positions below 0.9965 with targets @ 0.9865 & 0.982 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.9965 look for further upside with 1.002 & 1.0075 as targets.
Comment: the RSI has just struck against its neutrality area at 50% and is reversing down.

width=590Opinion published is an intraday view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced

 

USD/CHF intraday: rebound.

Pivot: 0.9405
Our preference: Long positions above 0.9405 with targets @ 0.948 & 0.952 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.9405 look for further downside with 0.937 & 0.932 as targets.
Comment: the pair is on the upside and is breaking above its resistance.

width=590

Opinion published is an intraday view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced.

Shayne Heffernan

Shayne Heffernan oversees the management of funds for institutions and high net worth individuals.

Shayne Heffernan holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reached a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.Read the Terms of Service

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