If I follow my long-term technicals in the COMEX-GLOBEX GOLD FUTURES market, my opinion is that the long-term trend remains unchanged.

MY ANALYSIS

Fundamentally, I believe that there is a critical FUNDAMENTAL or OUTSIDE market influence that could potentially contribute to sending Gold on to new all-time record highs and that is while the U.S.Dollar (as measured by the US Dollar Index) is currently in a short-term upward trend, I expect that the trend will change and we could see the Dollar fall sharply.

Technically, I see the COMEX/GLOBEX GOLD FUTURES market in long term Super-Trend higher as the market trades above the 9 month Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 20 month Simple Moving Average. Both of these SMA's point sharply higher in my opinion. While past performance is not indicative of future results, everytime Gold has pulled back to the 9 month SMA (red line) since April 2009, it has held there and gone on to eventually make a new all time record high. Again that doesn't mean it will happen again, but as a technical trader I cannot ignore this past cycle. No technical indicators work 100% of the time, including 9 and 20 period SMA's. See monthly chart below.

Note: TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS

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source: Markethead.com with price data provided by BarChart.com

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Futures and options and trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed. The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.