Dollar Bearish Levels Clearly Defined

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 09:46:21 -0400

By Jamie Saettele, Senior Currency Strategist

-EURUSD upside remains as long as price is above 1.2830
-GBPUSD corresponding level is 1.3880
-AUDUSD corresponding level is .6520
-USDCAD resuming uptrend?


Euro / US Dollar


The EURUSD rally is stalling just shy of the February high at 1.31.  Additional resistance at the current level is the 55 day SMA, which the pair crossed above yesterday but failed to close above.  Still, structure is bullish as long as price is above 1.2832 (yesterday’s low, which was also an outside day).  As I’ve mentioned in recent weeks, the decline from 1.3333 was a diagonal which completed 5 waves down from 1.4723.  Diagonals are usually fully retraced.  Positive sloping MACD, which is about to cross into positive territory, favors bulls. 

British Pound / US Dollar


A B wave low is in place for the GBPUSD.  Price is testing the top side of the channel that contains the B wave.  Expect a break higher as long as price is above 1.3887.  Coming below there would give scope to a test of last week’s low at 1.3653.   The minimum objective is above 1.50 (wave B origin). 

Australian Dollar / US Dollar


It is probable that a flat is underway in the AUDUSD as a complex W-X-Y pattern that will end above .7275.  The AUDUSD has cleared the resistance line drawn off of the January 7th and February 9th high, which bolsters the bullish bias.  Bulls are favored near term as long as price is above .6525.  MACD has turned from negative to positive for the first time since mid December. 

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar


The bullish target zone / potential topping area for the NZDUSD is between .5457 (former 4th wave and 50% retracement) and .56 (61.8% retracement).  Near term, strength is favored as long as price is above .52.  The pair closed right at the 55 day SMA yesterday.  MACD has turned from negative to positive for the first time since mid December.     

US Dollar / Japanese Yen


At this point, there are only 3 waves down from the top so a top can not be confirmed.  Coming under 97.11 would be evidence that a top is in place.  Until then, it is possible that price exceeds 99.72 and tests Fibonacci resistance at 101.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar


Longer term, if the USDCAD is breaking higher in an impulse as a terminal thrust from a triangle (that had been underway since October), then price needs to remain above 1.2348.  The USDCAD has held the 61.8% of 1.2348-1.3068 at 1.2618, which is reinforced by a short term support line.  Bullish evidence warrants action.   

US Dollar / Swiss Franc


“The fact that a diagonal from 1.13 has not yet been fully retraced makes me skeptical of this move.  One possible outcome is an A-B-C flat…wave C would end below 1.1430.  I’ll post alerts if I see a short opportunity.” 

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close.  He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Please send comments about this report to

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market. Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.