-EURUSD consolidates before next leg up
-GBPUSD low may be in place
-AUDUSD and NZDUSD advances well underway
Euro / US Dollar
The EURUSD is consolidation at the top of a short term channel prior to breaking to higher levels. Bulls can move risk up to 1.2730. As mentioned the last few days, 1.33 is the minimum objective.
British Pound / US Dollar
A B wave low may be in place for the GBPUSD. The count that I am working with now treats the rally from 1.35 to 1.4990 as wave A of a flat (flats have subwaves 3-3-5). Wave B is in 3 waves and waves a and c of B are roughly equal (a common occurrence).
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
It is probable that a flat is underway in the AUDUSD as a complex W-X-Y pattern that will end above .7275. The AUDUSD has cleared the resistance line drawn off of the January 7th and February 9th high, which bolsters the bullish bias.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
The NZDUSD has declined impulsively (5 waves) since its 2008 high and that decline was followed by a 3 wave rally (from the November low). As mentioned previously, the decline from .6090 is now in 5 waves and the risk of a sharp advance back to at least .5454 in a small second wave is high. That advance is underway.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
I wrote yesterday that a drop below Elliott channel support would begin to suggest that a top is in place. That line is at 97 today. The key word in that phrase is ‘begin'. At this point, there are only 3 waves down from the top so a top can not be confirmed. Coming under 97.11 would be evidence that a top is in place.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Longer term, if the USDCAD is breaking higher in an impulse as a terminal thrust from a triangle (that had been underway since October), then price needs to remain above 1.2348. I wrote yesterday that a drop below 1.2709 looks likely but in order to complete a short term head and shoulders top. That pattern formed but there is potential support from the 61.8% of 1.2348-1.3068 at 1.2618. This level is reinforced by a short term support line.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
There is no change from yesterday as the USDCHF has marked time since its explosion. The fact that a diagonal from 1.13 has not yet been fully retraced makes me skeptical of this move. One possible outcome is an A-B-C flat...wave C would end below 1.1430. I'll post alerts if I see a short opportunity.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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