The double bottom that we've been focusing on in the USDJPY would be confirmed on a rally through 90.50. Moving through there opens up a move to 92.50.
Euro / US Dollar
As mentioned yesterday, staying above 1.4480 keeps the uptrend intact and 1.4650 is potential short term support. The EURUSD could of course make a new high (above 1.4850), but it would be in a blow-off top. If the pair does spring to a new high (above 1.4850), then resistance is anywhere from the psychological 1.5000 to the line that is extended from the March and June highs (at 1.5372 next week). 1.5282 is the ‘breakdown' level from 2008 and also potential resistance.
British Pound / US Dollar
This is a chart that I showed two days ago in a DailyFX alert. Commentary was that the line extended from the September 11, 15, and 23 highs defines the short term trend. This line is at 1.6105 today (just pips from the high). Continue to favor the downside against there as price action since the 9/28 low is viewed as a consolidation that will give way to additional weakness. That line has held so there is no reason to move away from the bearish view. 1.5970 and 1.6000 are short term resistance levels.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
The AUDUSD reached the midline of its channel today and is trading at its highest level since August 2008. Continued divergence with momentum suggests that the decline is in its latter stages. So far, .9100 has held but levels to watch going forward are .9200, .9270, and .9325 (these are former support levels from 2008).
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
The NZDUSD has reached what was former support from the June 2008 low at .7444. Clearly, the advance is overdone as evidenced by RSI (which is divergent and declined from above overbought). The rally is in its Fibonacci 8th consecutive month. Still, like the AUDUSD, there is no way to measure risk for a short position until a pivot is established. That pivot will probably be established after today's close since yesterday's high has not been exceeded but the low has been broken.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
I wrote yesterday that the recent dip below 30 in RSI warns of a shaper short covering rally (or more). Exceeding 90.43 would confirm a short term double bottom. The USDJPY has broken above a steep short term resistance line and the next level of interest is the top of a 2 month channel / 90.43. Again, trading through there would give scope to additional gains.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Focus remains on 1.0317, which is the 61.8% extension of 1.3068-1.0782/1.1730. 1.0525/45 is a short term resistance zone. Rallying through 1.0670 would begin to suggest an important bottoming out pattern.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
The USDCHF daily wave count warns (and has been warning) of a significant low. A rally above 1.0457/channel resistance would confirm a low. Until then, the USDCHF is vulnerable however. 1.0370 is potential resistance. Dropping to a new low (under 1.0180) exposes a measured level at 1.0037.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary at DailyFX Forex Stream.
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