With all the week€™s important economic events out of the way € the ECB monetary policy meeting, G20 and Non-farm payrolls - markets are still none the wiser about the future of the global economy! President Obama€™s message during the G20 was clear in G20, all world leaders must unite and fight the current economic crisis and only this way will we see a recovery! Markets did rally as they welcomed the communiquÃ©; however come today and the fact that another negative payroll number and record unemployment hit the markets, gave investors a bitter taste after yesterday€™s optimism!
The EUR/USD was trading higher after the Non-farm payroll data; however the pair seems to be trapped within 1.33-1.35 for now. The euro is much weaker today after yesterday€™s ECB meeting and although Mr. Trichet did not slush rates more than 25 bps, which was widely expected however there is a feeling amongst traders that the ECB is only prolonging the inevitable: lowering rates towards zero! For now the pair has to break 1.3360 on the downside in order to say that more weakness may be printed, however as long as 1.3330-1.3360 holds, all bets are off!
Markets are choppy on the last trading day of the week and that is only to be expected with so many crucial events and the G20! Although traders knew deep down that the outcome wouldn€™t bring more financial stability, however the need for hope of a better economic tomorrow made the rally in the global markets continue and now it will be interesting to see how it unfolds next week! The economic releases were all negative, with unemployment reaching a new record high of 8.5% and job loses printing yet another dismal number -663.000! Also the ISM Manufacturing data disappointed, making the economic outlook for US grim once again! So far US stocks are retreating after the news so let€™s see how this will play out until New York€™s closing.
This week has been eventful to say the least and traders are now left even more confused as to which direction to follow! One thing is for sure, the latest job data implies that Obama€™s work will be even more difficult; however there is this positive sentiment the second economic quarter may be slightly better, with all recent stimulus packages kicking in!
The gold was sliding these days, as the optimism was higher and therefore there was no need for gold to be bought as a safe haven asset anymore, however as I said previously, the $900 level is still crucial and if it does hold during the coming days, we may see another leg up towards $960.
USD/JPY rallied this week with the pair making a brief appearance above 100, at 100.25; however as the latter level has good resistance it found willing sellers towards 99.50. For now, we need a clear break of 100.30 in order to say that more upside will occur, as the yen in recent days have been totally outperformed with the Japanese economy still sinking and data failing to provide the currency with its safe haven status.
At the moment the currency that currently outperforms every other is the pound and GBP/USD is making an impressive rally towards 1.4880 -1.49, however we need to see a break of the latter level before we can say the pair is heading towards a psychological 1.50 level! The pair has been influenced by EUR/GBP€™s big move on the downside and for now, 0.9030 is the next support level to watch. A clear break may open the way towards 0.8970. Traders know the BOE has already taken its decision to lower rates down to zero and there is little chance of going even lower in the coming months. However, with ECB stalling and Trichet not acting as fast as the FED regarding substantial easing, the euro is getting hit and the EUR/GBP may continue to lose in the short term€¦