-EURUSD direction unclear
-GBPUSD support at 1.4950
-USDJPY slowly rolling over
-USDCAD drops beneath 200 day SMA
Euro / US Dollar
The push above channel resistance indicates that the EURUSD corrective advance from 1.2510 is not yet complete. In fact, recent developments suggest a rally through 1.3742 and possibly as high as 1.4150-1.4200 (61.8% of decline from 1.4723 and 100% extension of 1.2510-1.3742). Price ideally stays above 1.3245 now (last night's low). A word of warning though - triple divergence with RSI on the 240 minute chart warns of weakness. So, I am bullish, but cautiously so. Confidence is extremely low.
British Pound / US Dollar
The only statement that I can make with a high degree of certainty is that the rally from 1.35 is a larger 4th wave (corrective) and that it is highly probable that 1.3500 will be broken later this year. BUT, as is the case with the EURUSD, a larger advance seems likely prior to the next leg lower. Staying above 1.4776 keeps bulls in control and Cable on a path towards 1.5378 and perhaps 1.5728 (200 day SMA near there as well). Short term support is at 1.4950.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
The correction from the October low is still underway. The rally from .6953 is wave v of C and an objective is .7630 (which is where wave v of C would equal wave i of C). This is close to the 50% of the decline from .9822. Staying above .7228 keeps bulls in control.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
The head and shoulders ‘look' is still there but the decline from .5987 is in 3 waves, which warns of additional upside potential. Also, the right shoulder is consuming too much time. Remaining above .5624 keeps the NZDUSD on a path towards higher prices. On the daily today, I am highlighting how wave C of an A-B-C advance from the low may be underway. Under this count, the NZDUSD would exceed .60 and potentially reach .6340 or .6740 in the next few months.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The long term trend remains down and I expect a resumption of that trend although there is near term upside potential. A potential head and shoulders top that is evident. Coming back beneath the 200 day SMA would begin to suggest that the decline has resumed.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
A larger USDCAD decline is underway towards 1.1359 and perhaps even lower. Weakness, which is accelerating, indicates that 5 waves from .9055 are complete at 1.3068. 1.1980 is short term resistance.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
The USDCHF decline is also likely to extend. 1.0925 is the 61.8% of the advance from 1.0367 and potential support. Staying below 1.1606 keeps the pair on a path lower. Short term resistance is at 1.1450/75.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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