The greenback fluctuated on the last trading day of third quarter and moved independently to its major counterparts. U.S. ADP employment figure came out at a decrease of 254,000 jobs, weaker than the consensus forecast of a cut of 210,000. Dollar advanced broadly due to the weak figure but fell later as commodities and oil surged after the release of gasoline inventories (which fell 1.66 million barrels in the week compared with the forecast of 1 million barrels increase). Crude oil rallied by 4.9% to above $70 a barrel while gold climbed back to above $1000 an ounce.
Dollar extended Tuesday's rebound briefly to 90.42 yen in Asian morning but retreated subsequently to as low as 89.35 on quarter-end repatriation. However, the greenback was supported by save-haven buying after the release of ADP data and price traded sideways for the rest of the day. Usd/chf rallied from 1.0282 to 1.0450 on rumours that the SNB had intervened ahead of the revisit of last week's multi-month low at 1.5073 on eur/chf, however, price retreated later on the back of dollar's weakness. (As usual, SNB didn't make any comment on the rumour of intervention).
The single currency edged higher to 1.4675 on renewed dollar's weakness in European morning, price then retreated sharply to 1.4575 in part due to the weak ADP figure and Chicago PMI (the index fell to 46.1 from 50.0, weaker than forecast of 52.0), as well as the -130 points opening in the Dow. However, euro rebounded from there as rising commodities spurred buying on risky assets and equities also pared most of the earlier losses (DJI ended down 29 points only). Cable rose in Asian and European session on dollar's weakness and also continuing cross-unwinding in eur/gbp. Price once retreated strongly from intra-day high of 1.6127 to 1.5945 but then rebounded in line with equities and commodities.
Economic data to be released on Thursday include:
Retail sales, Tankan big manufacturing, Tankan capex in Japan; retail sales and manufacturing PMI in Germany; PMI in Switzerland; manufacturing PMI and unemployment rate in eurozone; manufacturing PMI in U.K.; personal consumption, personal income, PCE index, jobless claims, construction spending, ISM manufacturing and pending home sales in the United States.