The dollar decline has accelerated and the move has all the characteristics of a panic decline. 1.4650 is potential EURUSD support. Coming much under there would expose 1.4480.
Euro / US Dollar
The US dollar decline has accelerated. Does the unruly rally have more room to run? Staying above 1.4480 keeps the uptrend intact and 1.4650 is potential short term support. The EURUSD could of course make a new high (above 1.4850), but it would be in a blow-off top. If the pair does spring to a new high (above 1.4850), then resistance is anywhere from the psychological 1.5000 to the line that is extended from the March and June highs (at 1.5372 next week). 1.5282 is the ‘breakdown' level from 2008 and also potential resistance.
British Pound / US Dollar
The line extended from the September 11, 15, and 23 highs defines the short term trend. This line is at 1.6105 today (just pips from the high). Continue to favor the downside against there as price action since the 9/28 low is viewed as a consolidation that will give way to additional weakness.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
The AUDUSD reached .9050 today and is trading at its highest level since August 2008. Continued divergence with momentum on its way up suggest that the decline is in its latter stages but until a pivot is established, we cannot attempt to fade the trend. Levels to watch going forward are .9200, .9270, and .9325 (these are former support levels from 2008).
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
The NZDUSD has reached what was former support from the January 2008 low at .7374. Clearly, the advance is overdone as evidenced by RSI (which is overbought and divergent) and the fact that the rally is in its Fibonacci 8th consecutive month. Still, like the AUDUSD, there is no way to measure risk for a short position until a pivot is established.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
Move risk down to 89.50 (today's high is at 89.40) from 90.50. The recent dip below 30 in RSI warns of a shaper short covering rally (or more). Exceeding 90.43 would confirm a short term double bottom.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Having dropped to a fresh 2009 low, focus is now on 1.0317, which is the 61.8% extension of 1.3068-1.0782/1.1730. 1.0670 and 1.0700 are short term resistance points.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
The USDCHF daily wave count warns (and has been warning) of a significant low. A rally above 1.0457/channel resistance would confirm a low. Dropping to a new low (under 1.0180) exposes a measured level at 1.0037.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary at DailyFX Forex Stream.
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