The long term (multi year) US dollar advance has resumed. Dollar declines should be bought.
Euro / US Dollar
The short term pattern in the EURUSD strongly suggests that the longer term decline has resumed. At this point, price should remain below 1.4330 and potential resistance is the 1.4158/1.4210 zone. 1.4000 (1.3981 is a 100% extension) may provide short term support but rallies should be sold at this point.
British Pound / US Dollar
The long term GBPUSD decline has most likely resumed as well. The ultimate objective is below 1.3500 and price should remain below 1.6672 now. 1.6000 is potential short term support (7/8 low and 100% extension surrounds this level). Former support at 1.6388 is potential resistance.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
I wrote last week that we have yet to see the degree of weakness from the top that is evident in the EURUSD and GBPUSD but RSI divergence as well as the patterns in the EURUSD and GBPUSD do warn of a reversal. The short term pattern is not clear, but the NZDUSD sheds some light on what might be going on. Nearly 300 pips off of the top, weakness is confirming my suspicions that an important top is in place. Rallies should be sold. .8270-.8330 is potential resistance. Testing channel support now, a daily close below would confirm a top.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
I wrote last week that the rally from .6193 (wave 5) may be unfolding as a diagonal. If this is the case, then price will poke above .6823 prior to reversing. Failing just shy of the mentioned line, the NZDUSD has indeed reversed sharply. Rallies should be sold. .6710 is potential resistance.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The USDJPY has been violent lately - moving sharply in both directions. The NFP spike has been entirely retraced and the decline from 97.81 to 95.11 is impulsive as is the decline from 96.79. 5 wave moves occur in the direction of the larger trend, so rallies should be sold. 95.10 and 95.50 potential resistance areas and the trend is bearish below 96.80.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Recent commentary was that the entire rally from 1.0782 has now been retraced. However, the drop below 1.0782 may be wave Y in a complex W-X-Y corrective decline from 1.3068. Daily RSI has turned up from oversold (which was also divergent with the low). The USDCAD rally has picked up steam and cleared initial resistance at 1.0940. The advance has the characteristics of an impulse and the decline has stalled at the 61.8% of the rally. If the USDCAD is to turn up, then this is a good place for it to do so. The pair did turn up and price has now cleared 1.1108. A 3rd wave is probably underway from 1.0791. Dips should be bought against that level. 1.0972-1.1027 is a support zone.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
The USDCHF pattern is the same as the EURUSD pattern (but as the inverse). Wave C within the A-B-C corrective decline from 1.2303 may be truncated and therefore complete. Trading above 1.0939 would confirm the reversal. Near term, price ideally stays above 1.0670.
British Pound / Japanese Yen
After breaking below a support line and testing 156.00, the GBPJPY reversed violently after testing the 61.8% of the decline from 163.15. I wrote last week that a close look at the rally from 155.96 reveals that the advance is in 3 waves as well (corrective). Favor the downside. A break below 156.00 exposes a Fibonacci confluence at 152.80/153.40. Former support at 156 is now potential resistance. Rallies should be sold against 160.50. Potential short term support levels are 152.80 and 150.00.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday) and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary at DailyFX Forex Stream. Contact Jamie at email@example.com