Dollar Shorting Opportunities Next Week

By @ibtimes on

-EURUSD 1.3125 Fibonacci support
-GBPUSD to stay above 1.4514
-AUDUSD support at .7185
-USDJPY nears potential resistance
-USDCAD resistance at 1.2065
-USDCHF resistance at 1.1475

Euro / US Dollar

The push above channel resistance suggests to me that the EURUSD corrective advance from 1.2510 is not yet complete. In fact, recent developments suggest a rally through 1.3742 and possibly as high as 1.4150-1.4200 (61.8% of decline from 1.4723 and 100% extension of 1.2510-1.3742). Staying above 1.2965 keeps this outlook intact and there is short term Fibonacci support at 1.3125. A dip to this level would warrant bullish action.

British Pound / US Dollar

Cable is confounding right as the pair still has the head and shoulders top ‘look'. Structure is not clear near term. The only statement that I can make with a high degree of certainty is that the rally from 1.35 is a larger 4th wave (corrective) and that it is highly probable that 1.3500 will be broken later this year. BUT, as is the case with the EURUSD, a larger advance seems likely prior to the next leg lower. Staying above 1.4396 keeps bulls in control and Cable on a path towards 1.5728 (200 day SMA near there as well). A drop beneath 1.4702 could complete a short term correction near term.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

The correction from the October low is still underway. The AUDUSD has broken through the 200 day SMA and is at its highest level since early October. Short term support is .7139-.7232. The rally from .6953 is wave v of C and an objective is .7630 (which is where wave v of C would equal wave i of C). This is close to the 50% of the decline from .9822.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Like the GBPUSD, the NZDUSD is unclear. The head and shoulders ‘look' is still there but the decline from .5987 is in 3 waves, which warns of additional upside potential. On the monthly, the decline from 2008 high is an impulse and the correction has reached the area of the former 4th wave, which often marks the terminus for corrections. This bearish evidence is at odds with other USD crosses, so stand aside until structure clear up.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

The long term trend remains down and I expect a resumption of that trend although there is near term upside potential. There is potential resistance at 99.72 (March 5 and April 17 highs). Until there are short term signs of weakness, it is dangerous to be short the USDJPY.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

A larger USDCAD decline is underway towards 1.1359 and perhaps even lower. Weakness, which is accelerating, strongly suggests that 5 waves from .9055 are complete at 1.3068. 1.2065 is short term resistance.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

The USDCHF decline is also likely to extend. 1.0925 is the 61.8% of the advance from 1.0367 and potential support. Staying below 1.1606 keeps the pair on a path lower. Short term resistance is at 1.1450/75.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

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