Dollar remains generally soft, except versus yen, after release of Q1 GDP data from US. US economy grew 3.2% annualized rate in Q1, slightly below expectation of 3.4%. Price index rose 0.9% as expected while core PCE rose 0.6%. Employment costs jumped 0.6% in Q1 too. From Canada, GDP expanded less than expected by 0.3% mom in February. IPPI dropped -0.4% mom in March with RMPI rose 0.8%. Released earlier, Eurozone CPI was unchanged at 1.5% yoy in APril while unemployment was also steady at 10% in March. Swiss KOF leading indicator rose to 1.99 in April.

Euro extends recovery as European Commission said that talks to finalize the overall rescue package could be wrapped up by Saturday. Also there are rumors that German financial and industrial firms will contribute between EUR 1-2b to the Greece rescue package. CDS on Greek bonds dropped further towards 600 level, down from above 800 earlier this week while CDS on Portugal and Spain also fell.

SNB President Hildebrand said today that if Swiss Franc appreciate sharply because of safe haven flow, there would be a negative impact. Hildebrand reiterated that SNB will not allow this development to turn into a new deflation hazard and the bank will act decisive to prevent an excessive appreciation. Also Hildebrand said that financial market concerns that have arisen about the public finances of individual euro area countries represent a considerable risk to economic recovery.

The turn to risk appetite this week sent Japanese yen lower while commodity currencies are benefited. NZD/JPY takes out 68.62 resistance today and affirm the case that consolidation from 69.70 is over. We'd anticipate more strength in the cross in near term and a break of 69.70 eventually to resume medium term rise from 2009 low of 44.19.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 93.24; (P) 93.78; (R1) 94.57; 

USD/JPY rises further to as high as 94.57 earlier today but after all, upside is still limited below 94.68 resistance. Outlook remains neutral. On the upside, decisive break of 94.68 resistance will confirm that whole rally from 88.13 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 84.81 to 93.74 from 88.13 at 97.06 next. Before that, we might see more sideway consolidations first. Below 93.84 minor support will bring another fall but, we'd expected downside to be contained by 91.59 support to conclude the consolidation from 94.68 and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole down trend form 124.13 is completed at 84.81 on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. We'd expect stronger rally towards 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirming this bullish case. On the downside, break of 88.13 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 84.81 is finished. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

USD/JPY

Economic Indicators Update

GMTCcyEventsActualConsensusPreviousRevised

23:01
GBP
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Apr
-16
-14
-15

23:15
JPY
Manufacturing PMI Apr
53.5
--
52.4

23:30
JPY
Unemployment Rate Mar
5.00%
4.90%
4.90%

23:30
JPY
Household Spending Y/Y Mar
4.40%
0.70%
-0.50%

23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Apr
-1.90%
-2.00%
-1.80%

23:30
JPY
National CPI Core Y/Y Mar
-1.20%
-1.20%
-1.20%

23:50
JPY
Industrial Production M/M Mar P
0.30%
0.80%
-0.60%

23:50
JPY
Industrial Production Y/Y Mar P
30.70%
31.10%
31.30%

04:15
JPY
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.10%
0.10%
0.10%

05:00
JPY
Housing Starts Y/Y Mar
-2.40%
-5.80%
-9.30%

09:00
EUR
Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr
1.50%
1.50%
1.50%

09:00
EUR
Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar
10.00%
10.00%
10.00%

09:30
CHF
KOF Leading Indicator Apr
1.99
1.99
1.93
1.96

12:30
CAD
GDP M/M Feb
0.30%
0.40%
0.60%

12:30
CAD
Industrial Product Price M/M Mar
-0.40%
0.20%
0.00%

12:30
CAD
Raw Materials Price Index M/M Mar
0.80%
0.90%
0.40%

12:30
USD
GDP (Annualized) Q1 A
3.20%
3.40%
5.60%

12:30
USD
GDP Price Index Q1 A
0.90%
0.90%
0.50%

12:30
USD
Core PCE Q/Q Q1 A
0.60%
0.50%
1.80%

12:30
USD
Employment Cost Index Q1
0.60%
0.50%
0.50%

13:45
USD
Chicago PMI Apr

60
58.8

13:55
USD
U. of Michigan Confidence Apr F

71
69.5